TRACKING THE TROPICS
TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
East-Central Subtropical Atlantic: An area of low pressure located about 900 miles northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has been producing a small but persistent area of showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center since this morning. However, the low is forecast to move southwestward at 10 to 15 mph into an area of stronger upper-level winds tonight and tomorrow, and additional development is not expected.
No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for this system unless conditions warrant. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2024, and Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the remainder of the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours, low, 10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days, low, 10 percent.
Posted 1 hour, 3 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Berg/Brown
Special Features
Strong Thunderstorms With Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola: A persistent surface trough extending southwestward from 25N62W to Puerto Rico is providing moist southerly flow across Hispaniola. Coupled with a pronounced mid to upper-level trough in the vicinity, strong thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon and early evening hours over and near Hispaniola today and Thu. These thunderstorms are capable of producing heavy downpours, increasing the chance for flash flooding, especially in hilly terrains and low-lying areas. Please refer to local weather service offices for more details on this event.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W extending southwestward to 00N20W. The ITCZ continues from 00N20W to 01S30W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 0SN to 07N between 10W and 20W.
Gulf Of Mexico
A surface ridge extends from E to W just N of the basin across the southeastern United States. Mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail across the basin, locally fresh W of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the northern half of the basin, and 2 to 4 ft across the southern half of the basin.
For the forecast, the broad ridge centered off NE Florida will support mainly gentle to moderate E winds in the NE half of the Gulf, and moderate to fresh SE winds in the SW half of the Gulf through Thu. The pressure gradient will tighten over the Gulf starting Thu night, increasing E to SE winds to fresh to strong across the whole basin through Sun night. Seas will build to 10 ft Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh to strong W of the Yucatan each evening.
Caribbean Sea
Please read the Special Features section about strong thunderstorms and the potential heavy rainfall across Hispaniola.
Gentle to moderate trades are over the basin, except fresh in the Windward Passage and in the Lee of Cuba, and fresh to locally strong near Colombia. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the basin, locally 6 ft in the S-central Caribbean.
For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the Greater Antilles will support fresh to locally strong winds just N of Colombia, through the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba today through Thu. Looking ahead, further building of the high on starting on Fri will also force fresh to strong trades in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and just S of Hispaniola through the weekend.
Atlantic Ocean
Please read the Special Features section about the strong thunderstorms and potential for heavy rainfall across Hispaniola.
A cold front extends from 31N60W to 25N65W. A weakening cold front extends south from the front to the Turks and Caicos. Moderate to fresh NE winds exist behind this front and over the Bahamas, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Seas have diminished west of 75W to 4 to 6 ft. A 1023 mb high pressure is centered west of the front near 31N75W supporting gentle to moderate winds.
Farther east, a weakening low pressure system is near 25N36W. Fresh to strong NE winds are north of 25N between 30W and 45W around the NW quadrant of the low. Moderate winds or lighter are south and east of the low. Peak seas of 12 ft still exist near 26N37W in the NE quadrant of the low. 8 to 11 ft combined seas are north of 22N between 35W and 45W. Combined seas of 6 to 8 ft are north of 20N between 30W and 48W. Away from the low, moderate trades prevail over the basin, along with 4 to 7 ft seas.
For the forecast west of 55W, the front is forecast to gradually weaken and dissipate to a remnant trough by tonight. Associated northerly swell of 8 ft or greater will subside by this evening. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast Thu and Thu night. Looking ahead, a new cold front will merge with the trough and progress eastward, reaching 31N57W to E Cuba on Sat morning, and then 25N55W to Hispaniola on Sun morning. Swell will push S of 31N with the front, resulting in building seas. A strengthening Bermuda High should cause widespread fresh to strong N to E winds W of the front beginning Fri evening through Sun evening.
Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Mora
