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Special Features

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near 31N63W to 29N74W and to inland central Florida just south of Daytona Beach, Florida. The pressure gradient between the front and a high pressure ridge to its east has resulted in gale-force southwest winds ahead of the front to near 62W and north of 30N. Seas with these winds are 10 to 15 ft (3 to 5 m). These hazardous marine conditions will spread eastward through tonight. The front will quickly reaches from near 31N57W to 27N65W and weakening stationary to central Florida on Fri, at which time the gradient is expected to slacken enough to allow these winds to diminish to just below gale-force and seas to subside to around 9 to 13 ft (3 to 4 m) in west to northwest swell.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 10N13.5W and continues southwestward to 03N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the Equator at 30W and to south of the Equator near 02.5S39.5W. Numerous moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 22W-25W, also within 60 nm north of the trough and ITCZ between 20W-24W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-26W.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends from north-central Florida west- northwestward to just south of Apalachicola and to just north New Orleans, Louisiana. To its south, a 1022 mb high center is analyzed over the north-central Gulf at 27N90W. This feature pretty much controls the weather pattern across the basin. The associated gradient is allowing for generally light to variable to gentle winds throughout, with the exception of gentle north to northeast winds near and along the Yucatan Peninsula coast. Seas are relatively low, in the 2 to 3 ft range per buoy and altimeter satellite data.

For the forecast, the high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Fri, bringing in general light to gentle winds, with the exception of moderate to fresh easterly winds across the eastern Bay of Campeche through Sun. Southerly return flow will increase to fresh to strong speeds Fri night into Sat ahead of a cold front that will move across the west and central waters Sat night and Sun. Strong south to southwest winds and rough seas are expected in the north- central and NE Gulf section with passage of this frontal system on Sun. The front is forecast to exit southeast of the area late on Mon. Conditions remain favorable for the formation of patchy fog near and along some sections of the Texas coastal plains tonight and Fri night.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean. Seas there are in the 7 to 9 ft range. Over these waters. Moderate to fresh trades generally prevail elsewhere, with the exception of gentle to moderate northeast winds over the northwestern section of the basin. Seas over these waters are in the 3 to 5 ft range.

Satellite imagery shows an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the extreme northeast part of the sea north of 17N and east of 66W, including the eastern half of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the waters between the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands. This activity being enhanced by upper-level divergence that is present to the east and southeast of a broad western Atlantic upper-level trough.

For the forecast, pulsing winds to near gale-force are expected near the coast of Colombia again tonight due to the pressure gradient between the Colombia/Panamanian low and high pressure centered N of the region. Winds will continue to pulse to strong speeds nightly thereafter, with moderate to rough seas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail through the upcoming weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning for winds ahead of a western Atlantic cold front.

A cold front is analyzed from near 31N63W to 29N74W and to inland central Florida near just south of Daytona Beach, Florida. Aside from the gale conditions east of the front as described above under Special Features, fresh to strong southwest to west are elsewhere southeast and south of the front to near 27N and east to 72W along with seas of 7 to 10 ft in northwest swell. West to northwest winds are present elsewhere south of the front to 26N along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in northwest to north swell while moderate north to northeast winds are north of the front west of 67W, and fresh to strong northwest to north winds are east of 67W. Seas north of the front are 4 to 6 ft in north to northeast swell west of 74W, 6 to 8 ft in north to northeast swell between 70W and 74W, 7 to 10 ft in northwest swell between 67W and 70W, and 9 to 13 ft in northwest swell between 63W and 67W.

Farther east, a 1028 mb high center is analyzed just north of the area at 32N35W, with a ridge stretching southwestward to 26N50W and to near 25N60W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressure to the south is allowing for moderate to fresh trades to exist southeast of the ridge east of 60W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in decaying long-period northwest swell over these waters. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes indicate moderate to fresh southeast to south winds north of the ridge roughly between 45W and a line from 31N50W to 25N60W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in long-period northwest swell with these winds. The latest scatterometer satellite data passes show light to gentle anticyclonic within about 180 nm of the high center. Seas are 7 to 9 ft also with long-period northwest swell within this area of light to gentle winds. Lower sea conditions are present southwest and southeast of the Bahama Islands to along the coasts of Cuba and Hispaniola. Seas as low as 1 to 3 ft are west of 79W, including the Straits of Florida. Higher seas of 3 to 5 ft are in the Windward Passage and surrounding waters.

Satellite imagery depicts an area of numerous showers and thunderstorms confined to south of 23N between 60W and 66W. The activity becomes less numerous as it reaches south toward the Virgin Islands and near the coast of Puerto Rico. Gusty winds are possible with this activity as it is being enhanced by a broad upper-level trough to its west. This activity should persist into Fri as translates east-northeastward.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near 31N63W to 29N74W and to just south of Daytona Beach, Florida as described above under Special Features. The front will reach from near 31N53W to the Windward Passage by Sat morning. High pressure will follow the front. On Sun, south winds will increase to strong speeds offshore north and central Florida in advance of another cold front that is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. Coast on Mon. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas are expected in the wake of this next front.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre