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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 04N23W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N23W to 02N50W. Numerous moderate convection is along and north of both boundaries to 10N.

Gulf Of America

A stationary front extends from the Florida Keys to near 25N87W, where it transitions to a warm front that stretches north to a 1016 mb low pressure just offshore the mouth of the Mississippi River. Scattered moderated convection is along and north of the warm front. A stationary front then continues west from the low to a stronger low, at 1014 mb, just offshore Galveston Bay. Extending SW from this low is a cold front that reaches inland at the U.S.-Mexico border. Between the cold front and the Texas coast, scattered moderate convection is ongoing, along with fresh to strong N winds and building seas of 5 to 7 ft. N of the warm front in the far NE Gulf, fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist. Elsehwere in the basin, winds are moderate or less, with seas mainly of 2 to 4 ft, except under 2 ft within 120 nm of the Florida Peninsula.

For the forecast, the cold front in the NW Gulf will move southeastward over the basin through Fri, and fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and moderate seas will occur in the western Gulf behind the front into Fri afternoon. Localized near- gale force winds will be possible offshore of northeastern Mexico early on Fri. Mainly moderate or weaker winds are then expected over the basin Fri evening into Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf late on Sun and sweep over the basin into early next week, leading to fresh to strong N to NW winds and building seas in the wake of the front.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough extending along 67W from Puerto Rico to Venezuela is inducing scattered moderate convection over the SE basin, S of 16N and E of 69W. Another surface trough in the NW basin is producing no sensible weather. Fresh winds and moderate seas encompass most of the basin aside from the NW, where gentle winds and seas prevail. Locally fresh trades and rough seas are ongoing offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas are expected over much of the Caribbean through this weekend as low pressure prevails over the south-central basin and high pressure drifts eastward in the central Atlantic. Locally strong winds may pulse offshore of Colombia late tonight. Mainly moderate trade winds are then expected early next week. Rough seas in E swell will prevail east of the Lesser Antilles and through the Atlantic Passages into early next week. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the northwestern Caribbean early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front stretches from Bermuda to the Central Bahamas, where it transitions to a stationary front and continues through the Florida Straits. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N55W to the Turks and Caicos. Scattered moderate convection is E of this trough N of 25N and W of 50W.

Outside of convection, ridging stemming from a 1029 mb high near 35N25W extends across much of the basin. This results in a large swath of fresh trades and moderate rough seas in E swell south of a line extending from Puerto Rico to the Canary Islands, and N of 07N. Much of the remaining Atlantic is seeing moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in E swell south of 22N and east of 60W will slowly subside into Fri. Elsewhere, a weakening cold front is slated to move through the central Atlantic on Fri, leading to fresh NW to NE winds and rough seas north of 27N and east of 65W through Fri night. A low pressure system moving through the southern United States will support fresh to locally strong SW winds offshore of northern Florida by Fri morning, with fresh to strong winds and locally rough seas expanding eastward into the central Atlantic this weekend. A cold front associated with this system will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. This weekend, leading to locally fresh N to NE winds in the wake of the front offshore of Florida. Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system and strong cold front may move through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by early next week, supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and building seas ahead of and behind the front.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik