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Special Features

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A broad 1013 mb low is located near 30N55W with a weakening cold front extending southwestward to 24N60W. NE gales are occurring within 75-100 NM in the NW and NE semicircles, while strong gales are occurring within 40 NM in the NW semicircle of the low, per a 2351 UTC Metop-B ASCAT pass. Seas of 12 to 18 ft (3.5 to 5.5 m) are found north of 27N between 52W and 59W. Very rough seas are expected across the W semicircle of the low center through Fri morning, before the low begins to slowly weaken and gradually exits the forecast area Sat morning.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information this event.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Liberia coast near 06N11W and extends to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues westward from 05N15W to 03N40W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along and within 150 nm of these features between the W coast of Africa and 30W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and NW Colombia.

Gulf Of America

A new cold front is entering the basin from the TX and LA coasts. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed ahead of the front, with moderate to fresh NW winds following both of these features. Another surface trough is analyzed in the eastern Gulf, with moderate to fresh S winds seen near and to the east of the trough. Scattered showers are seen near the south end of the trough and through the Florida Straits. The remainder of the Gulf is seeing gentle to moderate winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, winds across the basin are veering to the S and SW ahead of a cold front entering the NW Gulf tonight. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico by Fri morning, from SW Florida to NE Mexico Fri evening, then begin to lift northward and dissipate through Sat. Then, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters this upcoming weekend into early next week.

Caribbean Sea

Satellite shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the far NW Caribbean near the western tip of Cuba, likely enhanced by a surface trough in the region. Refer to the monsoon trough/ITCZ section for details on other convection in the basin. Otherwise, a trade wind regime prevails across the Caribbean with fresh to strong trades occurring offshore NW Colombia, along with seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-6 ft prevail in the central and eastern basin. The remainder of the Caribbean is seeing moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through most of the forecast period. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds over the NW Caribbean. Large E swell will persist over the tropical Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the eastern part of the basin through Fri. High pressure will strengthen north of the basin this upcoming weekend into early next week to bring fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean, the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the western and central Atlantic.

A broad 1013 mb low is located near 30N55W with a weakening cold front extending southwestward to 24N60W. This front then transitions to a shear line from 24N60W to 22N68W to 25N76W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of 27N between 50W and 56W. Away from the areas of gales, fresh to strong SSE winds are seen ahead of this system N of 26N and W of 52W to the front and low. Fresh to strong NE to E winds also follow these features, covering much of the waters north of the shear line. In the far W Atlantic and N of the Bahamas, a swath of fresh to near-gale force winds is seen via scatterometer data ahead of a frontal boundary moving eastward across the US. Scattered moderate convection producing gale force winds is seen generally N of 20N and W of 76W.

In the east Atlantic, a broad upper trough is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms across a large area from 13N to 25N and E of 30W. Surface ridging prevails across much of the basin otherwise. Fresh to strong trades and seas of 7-10 ft cover much of the Atlantic S of 25N and E of 45W. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6-9 ft are observed S of 20N between 45W and the Lesser Antilles. The remainder of the basin is seeing moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, low pressure of 1014 mb is located near 30N55W with a weakening cold front extending southwestward through 24N59W. The low pressure is expected to become better organized and deepen tonight into early Fri as it moves slowly E-NE across the far NE zones. Ongoing strong gale-force winds within 90 nm NW semicircle of the low center and very rough seas associated with this system are expected to continue through early Fri afternoon. The low will gradually weaken and exit the forecast area Sat morning. The next cold front will move into the NW waters Fri afternoon, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Sat morning, then stall and weaken from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas Sat evening. Another cold front is forecast to move into the NW waters Sun night, and reach from 31N60W to central Florida by Mon evening, and from 29N55W to SE Florida Tue morning while dissipating.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams