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Tropical Waves

The axis of a tropical wave is near 29W from 05N to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 23W and 31W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 47W-48W from 06N to 18N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 14N between 46W and 53W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W from 13N to 23N, moving west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is about the wave axis from 16.5N to 18N between 59W and 61W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W S of 20N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered showers are in the vicinity of the wave N of 18N.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19.5N16.5W and continues southwestward to 10N31W to 12.5N41W to 10.5N49W. The ITCZ extends from 11N51W to 10.5N58W to 11.5N61W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11.5N E of 23W to the coast of Africa, while scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07.5N to 12.5N between 33W and 40W.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High near 29N71W westward across the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds, and slight seas generally prevail across the Gulf waters. Typical moderate to locally fresh NE winds are occurring along the N and W coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are blowing through the Straits of Florida, producing seas to 4 ft. A low level trough continues to drift westward across the east central Gulf and is yielding a small cluster of moderate convection well offshore of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Afternoon convection across central Florida has shifted westward over the waters SW of the entrance to Tampa Bay, and is quickly weakening.

For the forecast, the current ridge across the northern Gulf will dominate the general wind flow pattern across basin through Sat night. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will generally prevail across the basin, with the exception of pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period.

Caribbean Sea

The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb Bermuda High near 29N71W and a 1007 mb Colombian Low is supporting fresh to strong winds, and moderate to rough seas, over the central Caribbean S of 17.5N between 67W and 79W. Recent satellite scatterometer winds showed winds near gale-force off the northern coast of Colombia, where seas are estimated at around 10 ft. Fresh NE winds prevail through the Windward Passage and across the Gulf of Honduras, while moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the NE Caribbean to the Mona Passage in advance of an approaching tropical wave. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere across SE and NW portions. Ahead of the tropical wave along 80W scattered moderate convection is noted between the Cayman Islands and the east coast of the Yucatan, across the Gulf of Honduras, and along most of the coast of Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between ridging over the western Atlantic and lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central portion of the Caribbean basin through Wed night. The ridge will gradually shift southward to near 26N by Thu, and coincide with the arrival of a tropical wave, allowing for the fresh to strong trades to significantly expand in coverage to cover the eastern basin into early Sat. Winds are expected to reach near-gale force offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night, except Wed night. Winds will pulse up to fresh to strong speeds during the evenings and at night in the the Windward Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere.

Atlantic Ocean

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1023 mb Bermuda High centered near 29N71W, and a 1023 mb high centered near 27.5N45.5W. Light to gentle winds generally prevail over the waters N of 24N and west of 30W, with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are noted S of 24N and west of 30W, and moderate seas to 6 ft. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds continues from the Canary Islands to 19N to the east of 25W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Saharan Air dominates most of the basin N of 15N from Africa through the southern Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the current Atlantic ridge will shift slowly southward to along 28N Tue and to near 26N by Thu then change little into Sat. The pressure gradient will tighten over the southern portion leading to an increase of the trades from the Bahamas eastward. Fresh trades will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each night. Of note, an area of low pressure located about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing active showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development during the next day or two, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week while this system moves westward to west- northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance for tropical formation of this system within the next 7 days.

Posted 50 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling