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Special Features

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Former Tropical Storm Fay): The remnant low pressure of 1013 mb is centered near 30.5N37.5W. Winds of 20-25 kt continue within 180 nm across the N semicircle, where buoy observations suggest seas are 7 to 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection has increased in recent hours, and within 90 nm across the NE semicircle of the low. While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for development, this system could become a tropical depression again today or tonight if the current thunderstorm activity persists. The system is forecast to move westward during the next couple of days, and by the weekend upper-level winds should inhibit formation chances. This system has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): A new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of West Africa and has been analyzed along 18W, S of 15W. Satellite derived winds also depicted a low along the wave axis near 09N15W. Numerous moderate convection is noted from 07.5N to 13N and east of 22W. This area of low pressure is gradually becoming better defined, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. However, strong upper-level winds should end the opportunity for development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain and flash flooding is possible there by Friday. This system has a medium chance of formation in the next 48 hours.

Heavy Rainfall in Central America, Jamaica, and Cuba: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. An elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during the next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing from the NW coastal waters of Jamaica, westward across the Cayman Islands to 87W and then northward across east-central Cuba to Andros Island in the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection are elsewhere across the Gulf of Honduras, and the remainder of the Bahamas. Heavy rainfall in these regions will create the possibility of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information.

Tropical Waves

A new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of West Africa and has been analyzed along 18W, S of 15W. Please refer to the Special Features section above for more information on this tropical wave.

An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 45W, S of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 09.5N to 12N between 42.5W and 46W.

An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 60W south of 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is depicted south of 09N and west of 58W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough exits Africa near 12N16.5W and extends southwestward to 07N48W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N58W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 22W and 27W.

Gulf Of America

A weak pressure gradient remains across the Gulf basin as weakening high pressure across the SE U.S. Extends a ridge across the northern Gulf. A broad and persistent middle to upper-level trough over the eastern Gulf is supporting very active thunderstorms over portions of the NW Caribbean and across eastern Cuba into the Bahamas, while convection across the Gulf has diminished in recent hours, with widely scattered moderate convection across the Straits of Florida and into the SW Florida waters across the Fort Meyers area. A weak surface trough lingers from central Florida into the the SW Gulf to the Yucatan Channel. The current surface pattern is generally producing light to gentle easterly winds and slight seas across the Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. An upper-level trough will support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next couple of days. A cold front is forecast to move into the NE Gulf Thu night and Fri. The front will shift southward before stalling over the SE Gulf this weekend.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on impactful weather across the northwestern Caribbean.

Outside of the active convection across the NW Caribbean, fair weather dominates most of the basin. Scattered showers accompany a low-level trough moving across the Virgin Islands. At the surface, a weak pressure pattern prevails across the basin. Moderate trades prevail across most of the basin, where seas are 2 to 4 ft, while fresh winds are S of 14N to the coasts of NW Venezuela and extreme NE Colombia, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Outside of convection, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail across the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. An upper-level trough will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the next couple of days.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section above for more information on the Central Subtropical Atlantic system (Former Tropical Storm Fay).

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active across the NW Caribbean, across eastern Cuba and over much of the Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters W of 67W. This activity is occurring due to the combination of ample moisture across the area and unstable conditions created by the persistent and deep layered upper trough across the eastern Gulf of America and NW Caribbean. Another upper-level low is drifting westward near 25N50W. This feature is interacting with several surface troughs in the central Atlantic resulting in an area of scattered moderate convection from 22N to 28N between 46W and 53.5W. Outside of this convection, a weak pressure gradient continues across much of the Atlantic. This pattern is sustaining mostly gentle to moderate trades S of 20N and variable light to gentle winds elsewhere W of 35W, except for moderate SE to S winds over the area N of 26.5N between 57W and 73W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across this. Elsewhere, seas are 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through tonight. An upper- level trough will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 65W for the next couple of days. A cold front will move off the SE United States coast late tonight. The front will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the straits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Fresh to strong winds and increasing seas will follow the front on Thu and Fri, before decreasing on Sat.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Krv