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Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 15N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up from 05N to 09N between 30W and 38W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 15N southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 08N between 45W and 51W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is adjusted to near 69W from south of Dominican Republic southward to northwestern Venezuela. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed at the central Caribbean Sea and near the Venezuela-Colombia border.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal south of Dakar then reaches southwestward to 07N35W. An ITCZ continues westward from 07N35W to 08N46W and then from 08N50W to the coast of Guyana. Scattered moderate convection is present south of the monsoon trough from 05N to 10N and west of 21W. Refer to the Tropical Waves Section above for convection near the ITCZ.

Gulf Of America

A peripheral rainband associated with Hurricane Erick at the coast of Oaxaca State, Mexico is causing numerous heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms off Veracruz, Mexico in the western Bay of Campeche. A surface trough is coupling with divergent upper-level flow to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen elsewhere in the Bay of Campeche and west- central Gulf. Otherwise, a surface ridge runs westward from northern Florida to near the Texas-Mexico border. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the southwestern and west-cental Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are noted at the northeastern and east- central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to SSE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the peripheral rainbands from the aforementioned Hurricane Erick will continue to affect the southwestern Gulf through early Fri. Gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes and locally higher seas are expected in the strongest convection. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse each afternoon and evening over the next several days, north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward across the region. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow and moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf through the weekend.

Caribbean Sea

A 1025 mb Bermuda High near 28N69W continues to provide a robust trade-wind pattern across the entire Caribbean Sea. Convergent SE winds are creating isolated thunderstorms at the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the basin. Strong to near- gale easterly winds and seas of 10 to 12 ft are occurring at the south-central basin. Moderate to strong E winds and seas of 6 ft to 9 ft are present at the north-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, except light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas near Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High will support fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas over the central Caribbean through early next week. Winds will pulse to near gale force off Colombia at night. Fresh to occasionally strong trades and moderate to occasionally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras during the next several days. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

Convergent SW winds to the south of a stationary front near 33W are producing scattered moderate convection north of 28N between 35W and 48W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A pronounced subtropical ridge stretches westward from a 1025 mb high near 28N33W to a Bermuda near 28N69W. These features are dominating the Atlantic waters north of 28N and between 35W and the Florida coast wit light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas. To the south from 08N to 28N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are evident. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remaining Atlantic waters west of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned subtropical ridge will prevail along 29N. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas are forecast south of the ridge through the forecast period. Locally strong winds will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night into the weekend. Gentle to locally moderate winds will prevail elsewhere.

Posted 1 hour, 41 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Chan