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Special Features

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warning: An intensifying 1014 mb frontal low pressure system is near 28N56W. N to NE near-gale to gale-force winds are occurring just northwest and just south of the center. Seas of 12 to 15 ft (3.5 to 4.5 m) are found north of 28N between 56W and 59W. As the low tracks slowly east-northeastward through this evening, NW to NE gale to strong- gale winds will shift and expand to north of 28N between 54W and 57W. Seas will also rise to between 12 and 19 ft (3.5 to 5.5 m) and shift to north of 28N between 54W and 59W. The low is expected to be near 29N55.5W and gradually weaken on Fri morning. As a result, winds are forecast to decrease below gale- force around mid Fri afternoon. Afterward, seas should also subside below 12 ft late Fri night or early Sat morning.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information this event.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Liberia coast near Monrovia, then runs west-southwestward to 05N16W. An ITCZ continues westward from 05N16W to 04N38W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near both features from 02N to 06N between 14W and 22W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia.

Gulf Of America

Enhanced by a pronounced mid to upper-level trough, a surface trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf. Another surface trough runs southward from a 1011 mb low just southwest of New Orleans to the south- central Gulf. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near these features over the central Gulf. Fresh to strong SE to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present at the northeastern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist at the east-central and southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle with locally moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the western Atlantic and a surface trough across the eastern Gulf will maintain fresh to strong SE to S winds today across the eastern Gulf that will shift northward into the Florida Big Bend late this afternoon and diminish. Otherwise, winds across the rest of the Gulf will veer to the S and SW today ahead of the next cold front, which is forecast to move into the northwestern Gulf this evening. The front will then reach from the Florida Big Bend to near Brownsville, Texas by Fri morning, from southwestern Florida to northeastern Mexico Fri evening, then begin to stall and dissipate through Sat. High pressure will move into the northeastern Gulf Sat afternoon through Sun.

Caribbean Sea

A surface trough at the Gulf of Honduras if triggering widely scattered moderate convection near the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba. Another surface trough is causing widely scattered showers at the eastern basin and near the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, a trade-wind pattern continues with fresh to strong easterly trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft at the south-central and part of the southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted at the north-central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas will prevail over the south-central basin through tonight as high pressure shifts eastward across the western Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds over the northwestern basin. Large E swell will persist over the tropical Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the eastern part of the basin through Fri. High pressure will strengthen north of the basin Thu into the weekend to bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the central and southwest basin.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the western and central Atlantic.

A stationary front stretches west-southwestward from the north- central Atlantic across 31N43W to 30N55W, then continues a warm front to a 1014 mb low near 28N58W. A weak cold front extends southwestward from this low to near 25N61W, then continues a surface trough to 22N67W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up near these features, north of 25N between 51W and 57W. Farther south, a surface trough is producing scattered showers east of northern Brazil from 03N to 06N between 40W and 48W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Outside the Gale Warning area and very rough seas mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to strong NE to SE winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft are evident near and north of the fronts and surface trough, including the northeastern Florida offshore waters. To the east, a 1026 mb high near 29N30W is supporting gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 8 to 10 ft in large NW swell north of 24N between 35W and 55W/cold front. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 23N/24N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft in large NE swell dominate. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, the low pressure is expected to become better organized and deepen today as it moves slowly east- northeastward across the far northeastern zones. Gale-force winds are already occurring within about 60 nm of the low center. Very rough seas are expected across the west semicircle of the low center later this morning through Fri morning, with winds increasing to strong gales this evening, before the low begins to slowly weaken and gradually exits the forecast area Sat morning. The next cold front will move into the offshore waters of northeastern Florida Fri afternoon, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Sat morning, then stall and weaken from 31N60W to the northwest Bahamas Sat evening. Another cold front may move into the same offshore waters again Sun night.

Posted 5 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Chan