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Tropical Storm Erin is centered near 16.5N 41.9W at 13/0900 UTC or 1220 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving W at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas to 4 meters/12 feet extend 75 nm in the NE quadrant, 30 nm in the NW quadrant, and 15 nm in the SE quadrant. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within about 120 nm of the center. Erin's environment is expected to gradually become more conducive for strengthening over the next 48 hours, and the system will likely become a hurricane Thu night.

Erin is moving quickly westward and this general motion is expected through Thursday, with a west- northwestward motion beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend, with gradually slower forward speed. On the forecast track, Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some impacts on those islands. However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Erin NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 13N between 18W and 28W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, from the Windward Passage southward to Colombia, moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, south of 19N extending into Honduras, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present across the NW Caribbean W of 84W. This disturbance is forecast to move west- northwestward and cross the Yucatan Peninsula later today with no significant increase in organization. Some development of this system is possible after it emerges across the southwestern Gulf beginning on Thursday while the system moves to the west- northwest or northwest at 10 to 15 mph. This wave has a low chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours and also in the next 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 15N36W and then from 11N42W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection has developed from 09N to 14N between 29W and 35W.

Gulf Of America

See Tropical Waves section above for information on a NW Caribbean Tropical Wave that has potential for tropical development in the SW Gulf later this week.

Earlier convection across portions of the Gulf of Mexico was diurnal in natural, driven by daytime heating, and has dissipated early this morning, leaving the basin generally dry. Weak ridging dominates the basin, leading to moderate or weaker winds and seas of less than 3 ft.

For the forecast, aside from the tropical wave in the SW Gulf, mostly gentle winds and slight seas are expected through the basin as weak high pressure dominates.

Caribbean Sea

Two tropical waves are moving across the Caribbean Sea. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for information.

The basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge to the north of the islands. Strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds are noted offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, along with rough seas. Fresh trades and moderate seas across most of the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Erin is near 16.5N 41.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Erin will move to 16.4N 44.1W this afternoon, 16.5N 47.1W Thu morning, and 17.0N 50.0W Thu afternoon. Erin will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.8N 52.9W Fri morning, then move to 18.6N 55.8W Fri afternoon, and 19.5N 58.7W Sat morning. Hurricane Erin will change little in intensity as it moves north of the Leeward Islands early Sun. Elsewhere, a westward- moving tropical wave over the northwest Caribbean along 87W will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters today as it moves inland. The thunderstorms may produce frequent lightning, locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and rough seas.

Atlantic Ocean

Please, see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Erin in the central Atlantic.

Aside from Erin and convection being caused by a tropical wave and the Monsoon Trough, described in above sections, no significant convection is impacting the basin this morning. A pair of surface troughs extend from 31N52W to 25N65W and from 31N68W to 28N72W, respectively, but are inducing little in the way of sensible weather at this time, as the majority of the basin is being dominated by subtropical ridging centered N of the area. Winds N of 23N are mainly gentle with seas of 3 to 5 ft. To the south, moderate to fresh trades prevail to the monsoon trough, with seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Erin is near 16.5N 41.9W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving west at 17 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Erin will move to 16.4N 44.1W this afternoon, 16.5N 47.1W Thu morning, and 17.0N 50.0W Thu afternoon. Erin will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.8N 52.9W Fri morning, then move to 18.6N 55.8W Fri afternoon, and 19.5N 58.7W Sat morning. Hurricane Erin will change little in intensity as it moves north of the Leeward Islands early Sun. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will result in gentle to moderate winds and mainly slight seas through late week.

Posted 44 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik