WEATHER ALERT
TRACKING THE TROPICS
VIDEO FORECAST
TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Posted 3 weeks ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ,
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 08N12W and continues southwestward to 07N14W. The ITCZ extends from 07N14W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N and between 11W and 25W.
Gulf Of Mexico
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail over the Gulf of Mexico.
For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern United States will lead to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas through late week. Winds could increase some late Fri into Sat over the eastern Gulf as high pressure builds south from the SE United States. Conditions should quiet down again by Sun as high pressure ridging moves over the Gulf.
Caribbean Sea
Fresh to locally strong winds are over the SW Caribbean, where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are over the central Caribbean with moderate winds over the remainder of the Caribbean waters, with seas in the 5-6 ft range.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south will lead to widespread moderate to fresh winds over the basin into Wed night, with pulsing fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia and in the Windward Passage. Winds will then diminish only slightly for Thu into the weekend. Moderate seas will prevail across the central Caribbean through the period, and slight seas will prevail elsewhere.
Atlantic Ocean
A 1019 mb low is centered off the coast of northern Florida near 31N79W. Fresh to locally strong winds are in the vicinity of the low. A cold front extends from 31N44W to 22N59W and becomes stationary to Hispaniola. Fresh to strong winds are within 60 nm west of the frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere W of the front. Seas west of the front are in the 7-10 ft range, except N of 25N between 61W and 72W, where seas of 5-7 ft are noted. East of the frontal boundary, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-8 ft, prevail.
For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will weaken this evening and dissipate overnight. High pressure behind the front will bring fresh to strong winds across the southeast Bahamas and rough seas extending eastward, lasting through tonight. Fresh winds and rough seas offshore NE Florida associated with a 1019 mb low pres near 31N79W will diminish tonight as the low moves north of the area. A cold front will move south of 31N by early Thu, then extend from 31N57W to central Florida Thu evening, and from 23N55W to 21N65W to the central Bahamas by Sat morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds and large N swell are expected to come in behind the front, especially for areas to the east of 70W.
Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Al
