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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N15W, then curves southwestward to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N51. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring along and near both of these features, generally south of 10N between the W coast of Africa and 60W.

The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean to the Colombian Low. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean generally south of 12N.

Gulf Of America

Broad surface ridging extends from the central Atlantic westward to the eastern Gulf. The pressure between this ridge and lower pressure across central Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the Gulf W of 90W, and moderate or weaker winds across the Gulf E of 90W. Seas of 4-6 ft are analyzed across the Gulf W of 90W, and seas of 1-4 ft are analyzed E of 90W. Smoke from agricultural fires over southeastern Mexico continues to create hazy conditions at the west-central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern Gulf and relatively lower pressure in Texas and in eastern Mexico will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the western Gulf through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong E winds are likely along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through the period as a trough develops daily and drifts westward. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico will continue to maintain hazy sky conditions across the west central and SW Gulf through the period.

Caribbean Sea

An upper-level trough interacting with a surface trough analyzed from the Anegada Passage to near 14N65W is aiding in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the E Caribbean from 67W eastward. See the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for details on convection in the SW Caribbean. Recent scatterometer data indicate locally fresh to strong E winds in the far E Caribbean between Antigua and Guadeloupe, between Guadeloupe and Dominica, and also off the NE coast of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades prevail in the central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras, with moderate or weaker winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft E of 76W, and 2-5 ft to the W of 76W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras during late afternoons and nights through the period. Moderate to fresh trades and rough seas will persist over the Atlantic waters near and east of the Lesser Antilles through tonight. Increasing trades along with building seas are expected across the eastern part of the basin tonight. These conditions will shift westward to the central part of the basin by around midweek.

Atlantic Ocean

Recent satellite imagery shows a broad wave, potentially a tropical wave, slowly emerging off the coast of Africa, likely helping to enhance some convection along the monsoon trough near 16-17W. An upper-level trough interacting with a pair of surface troughs between 60W and 66W is aiding in the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms in a region from the Lesser Antilles to about 31N between 55W and 65W. Farther south, this same upper trough is also supporting scattered moderate convection along and near the northern coast of South America from Venezuela to far northern Brazil. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong E winds within the areas of strongest convection.

Otherwise, a 1025 mb high centered near 29N36W extends a broad ridge across much of the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across much of the Atlantic from 06N to 20N between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, as well as from 20N to 25N between Africa and 45W. Moderate seas prevail across these regions as well, with localized seas up to 9 ft occurring from 07N to 17N between 40W and 58W. The remainder of the Atlantic is seeing moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms S of 27N and E of 65W are associated to a surface trough and an upper- level cutoff low that is in that general area. The upper- low will gradually weaken through Mon as it generally shifts eastward allowing for the surface trough to lose its support. This should lead to a decreasing trend of the showers and thunderstorms. High pressure extending west-southwestward from the central Atlantic to the central Bahamas will support light to gentle winds over most of the area W of 63W through the period. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage each night well into next week. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW to W winds and building seas are expected over the NW portion of the area and northeast of the Bahamas around the middle of the week in response to a late season cold front that is anticipated to move off the southeastern United States coast Wed night and reach from near 31N75W to the NW Bahamas by late Thu. Fresh W to NW winds will follow the front. The front may be preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Adams