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Special Features

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off Texas early Sat morning, then race southeastward through the Gulf. Strong to near-gale N winds behind the front are going to spread across the western and north-central Gulf. These winds will peak at gale to strong-gale force offshore Tampico by Saturday afternoon, then spread to offshore Veracruz by Saturday evening. Winds offshore Tampico should drop below Gale force on Saturday night but will persist offshore Veracruz and the western Bay of Campeche into Monday morning. Seas are expected to peak between 14 and 21 ft under the strongest winds, highest offshore Veracruz.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough stays mostly over the Africa Continent, emerging offshore Liberia at 05N09W to 04N11.5W. The ITCZ stretches westward from 04N11.5W to 00.5N35W to near the border of French Guiana and Brazil at 04N41W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 04.5N between 12W and 30W. Similar convection is found from 04N to 06.5N between 48W and 54W.

Gulf Of America

Please read the Special Features section above on a upcoming Gale Warning.

A broad surface ridge extends westward from central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh with locally strong SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present at the west-central and central Gulf as seen on recent ASCAT scatterometer data as well as reported by in-situ observations. Gentle to moderate SE winds with 1 to 3 ft seas are noted at the far northeastern Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh SE to S winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong SE to S winds across portions of the western and central Gulf will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds today ahead of the next cold front. The front will move off the coast of Texas late tonight. Strong to near-gale force N winds following the front will rapidly reach gale speed near Tampico late Sat morning and afternoon, and in Veracruz adjacent waters Sat evening through Mon morning. Winds may peak around 45 kt near Veracruz. Seas will quickly build and likely peak at around 20 ft offshore of Veracruz Sun and Sun night. The front will weaken and stall from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening, and conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into Tue. Tranquil conditions are expected across the basin by late Tue night.

Caribbean Sea

A 1021 mb high northeast of the Bahamas is sustaining a trade-wind regime across much of the Caribbean Sea. Strong to near gale-force NE trades and seas of 7 to 10 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Fresh to strong winds are elsewhere in the central Caribbean including offshore southern Hispaniola, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are seen over part of the southwestern basin, as well as in the lee of Cuba, near the Windward Passage, and near the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to the gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low pressure over northern Colombia, then fresh to locally strong there afterwards. Rough seas to 11 ft will occur within these winds. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in the central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and Hispaniola adjacent waters. Locally strong winds will be likely pulsing at night over the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola through Sat night, with similar winds pulsing in the lee of Cuba tonight and Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail, except for moderate to fresh winds near the Gulf of Honduras into Sat. A decaying cold front may move into or near the far NW Caribbean early next week where it will stall and wash out.

Atlantic Ocean

A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N39W to 26N55W. A surface trough curves southwestward from 26N55W to near 23N60W. Widely scattered showers are occurring from 25N to 28.5N between 49W and 56W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

A 1021 mb high near 27N71W and its related ridge are supporting light to gentle winds with 2 to 5 ft seas north of 24N and west of 50W, except gentle to moderate NE winds near the southeast Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands. Farther east, fresh to strong winds are from 13N to 27N between Africa and 40W with 8 to 12 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds are north of 27N and east of 40W along with 6 to 9 ft seas. For the tropical Atlantic from 04N to 20N and west of 40W, moderate with locally fresh ENE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are visible. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swells privately.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure building in the wake of a cold front with tail just into the NE waters will support moderate to fresh NE winds across the waters E of the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches to the Windward Passage through Sun, locally strong near the Windward Passage. A new cold front will emerge off the NE Florida coast Sun. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning, dissipating Mon night into Tue.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky