TRACKING THE TROPICS
VIDEO FORECAST
TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Posted 6 days ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Hagen
Special Features
Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong to gale force winds are pulsing off the coast of Colombia, with seas peaking near 13 ft. Winds and seas will decrease this morning, then pulse to gale force offshore of Colombia again tonight. Winds will then pulse to near gale force at night through Fri.
Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues SW to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 23W and 47W.
Gulf Of America
A surface trough extends across the W Gulf, with weak high pressure over the NE Gulf. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, N and W of the Yucatan peninsula. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere.
For the forecast, high pressure across the basin will generally support light to gentle SE to S winds over the western and central Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds over the eastern part of the basin into Wed. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula and move into the Bay of Campeche nightly through early this week, supporting pulses of fresh to locally strong winds over adjacent waters. A cold front will skirt the NE Gulf early today. High pressure building into the basin in its wake will lead to moderate to fresh southeast winds and building seas across the NW Gulf by Thu.
Caribbean Sea
A Gale Warning is in effect offshore Colombia. Please, refer to the Special Features section above for more information.
Aside from the area of gale force winds, fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with seas in the 8-11 ft range. Fresh winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, are over the eastern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail elsewhere over the western Caribbean.
For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds offshore of Colombia and Venezuela will pulse to gale force offshore of Colombia tonight. These winds will then pulse to near gale force at night through Fri. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish today.
Atlantic Ocean
High pressure dominates the Atlantic discussion waters. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the far eastern Atlantic waters west of Africa to near 25W, where seas are in the 8-11 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft are elsewhere N of 20N. Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 7-8 ft, prevail S of 20N.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the western Atlantic will support gentle breezes and slight to moderate seas north of 22N through Wed. The area of high pressure will shift eastward enabling a weak cold front to move off the northeast Florida coast early today before dissipating. Fresh to locally strong winds are likely to pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola into Wed. Another cold front may move into waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, bringing an increase in winds across much of the waters S of 28N by the end of the week.
Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Al
