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Tropical Waves

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 50W from 02N to 14N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous thunderstorms are increasing ahead of the to near 55W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 76W south of 18N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is presently over the Caribbean waters. Decreasing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over some sections of northern Colombia.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coastal sections of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N24W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N34W and to 07N48W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 05N to 10N east of 17W to inland the coast of Africa. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 31W-39W, and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 24W-29W.

Gulf Of America

Two surface troughs are analyzed over the Gulf: One in the NW Gulf, and the other along the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Convergent winds around these features, as well as winds due to ridging extending into the basin, support isolated showers S of 26N between 91W and 97W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen moving eastward over and just to the south of the western Florida panhandle, and also over and inland the Texas coast from 27N to 28N due to an upper shortwave trough. Moderate to fresh E winds are over portions of the Gulf S of 25N and W of 87W, with moderate or weaker winds elsewhere as seen in overnight ASCAT satellite data passes. Seas are 3-6 ft across areas W of 87W, with lower seas of 1-3 ft to the E of 87W.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain across the NE Gulf through Thu. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in Mexico will support moderate to fresh SE winds across the western half of the Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through Thu night as a trough develops inland daily, then drifts westward to the Bay of Campeche at night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is expected to maintain hazy sky conditions across the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf through the end of the week. A weak cold front is expected to move into the northern Gulf later this week. The front will stall from central Florida to Texas during the weekend where it will gradually dissipate.

Caribbean Sea

A ridge persists N of the area. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong E winds over the south-central Caribbean, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras as were highlighted in overnight ASCAT satellite data passes. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7 to 11 ft range over the south- central Caribbean, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere S of 18N and E of 83W. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted over the northwestern Caribbean, with the exception of 5 to 7 ft seas in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, is moving across the basin resulting in isolated passing showers across the central and eastern Caribbean E of about 74W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft in the central, and in portions of the southwestern Caribbean through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast for the remainder of the basin, except for pulsing fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Fri. A tropical wave near 50W S of 14N is preceded by numerous thunderstorms that reach westward to near 55W. This wave will move across the Tropical N Atlantic through late Thu night, and across the eastern and central Caribbean through late Sun.

Atlantic Ocean

High pressure of 1030 mb located in the vicinity of the Azores dominates the Atlantic forecast waters, with its associated ridge extending southwestward toward the Bahamas and Florida. Light to gentle winds are along the ridge axis, with gentle to moderate E winds elsewhere N of 20N and W of 30W. Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes show moderate to fresh E winds S of about 20N and W of 30W. Seas are in the 3 to 6 ft range N of 20N, and 6 to 8 ft S of 20N. A cold front has pushed southward to extend along 30N between 62W and 74W. The cold front extends northeastward to a weak 1018 mb low centered near 32N58W. No significant convection is occurring with this cold front. Latest satellite imagery indicates isolated showers to be N of 29N between 54W and 64W.

Over the eastern part of the area, the pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in W Africa is producing fresh to strong N to NE winds over the waters between the Cabo Verde Islands to the Canary Islands and eastward from there. Seas with these winds are in the range of 6 to 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will persist roughly along 28N through Thu night, then shift east-southeastward through the upcoming weekend as a front approaches the U.S. Southeastern coast. Moderate to fresh SW winds are forecast across the northeast Florida offshore waters Thu night ahead of the cold front expected to emerge off the northern Florida coast Fri night. The front will stall from near 31N74W to northeast Florida by Sat evening before dissipating late Sun. Locally strong SW winds are forecast ahead of the front Fri night into Sat. The pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressure south of the basin will support moderate to fresh winds south of 25N.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Aguirre