WEATHER ALERT
TRACKING THE TROPICS
VIDEO FORECAST
TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic
For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Posted 3 weeks ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven
..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ,
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 01N09E and extends to 02N01W. The ITCZ continues from 02N01W to 04N20W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 28W and 35W.
Gulf Of Mexico
High pressure prevails over the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure over the central U.S. Will shift slowly eastward through the middle of next week, resulting in moderate E to SE winds late Sun into Tue, becoming SE to S Wed and Thu. A new cold front will approach the NW Gulf on Thu.
Caribbean Sea
A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail over the Caribbean waters.
For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will prevail across the western half of the Caribbean through Sun as a weakening cold front drifts southward across the SE Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic this weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trades are expected over the central and eastern Caribbean. High pressure will build over the eastern United States and western Atlantic early next week. A strengthening pressure gradient between the high pressure and the lingering cold front just N of the Caribbean will lead to fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across much of the basin Sun night through Tue, with winds and seas then gradually diminishing through mid week.
Atlantic Ocean
A cold front extends from SE of Bermuda to eastern Cuba. Gentle to moderate winds prevail west of the front. Farther east, a 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 27N48W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the front is supporting fresh to strong winds N of 29N within 120 nm E of the front, and gentle to moderate winds Elsewhere E of the front to 55W. Light to gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of the high center. A stationary front enters the discussion waters near 31N38W and extends SW to near 18N52W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 22N within 180 nm east of the boundary. Fresh to locally strong winds are elsewhere N of 20N and E of 35W. S of 20N, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas across the discussion waters are in the 6-10 ft range.
For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N65W to the central Bahamas and east-central Cuba will progress slowly southeastward through early next week. Farther east, a broad ridge is drifting eastward, and will produce moderate to fresh S to SE winds along the W periphery of the ridge, generally north of 20N and east of 60W through tonight. South of 20N, moderate to briefly fresh trades will prevail into the middle of next week. An inverted trough is forecast to develop east of the Bahamas Sun then drift westward to along the east coast of Florida by late Mon. A low center is likely to form near the NE Florida coast Mon night and shift northward. A strong high pressure ridge will shift into the western Atlantic during this time. The tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure, the lingering front, and the trough will induce a broad swath of fresh to strong NE to E winds and very rough seas to the east of the Bahamas Mon afternoon, shifting westward across the Bahamas through Tue, then quickly diminish. The cold front is expected to align nearly W to E along about 21N by Tue night before dissipating on Wed.
Posted 1 hour, 47 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Al
