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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic water near 11N15W and extends southwestward to 07N16W. The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to 04N30W to 09N48W. Plentiful scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 12N between 22W and 48W. Numerous moderate to scattered moderate convection is depicted from 05N to 09N between the west coast of Africa and 18W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A 1018 mb high pressure centered near 30N77W and its associated ridge dominates the basin with moderate to fresh E to SE return flow, except for strong winds extending from the Yucatan Channel and Peninsula to the NW Gulf waters. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across these winds, except 8 to 11 ft in the Texas coastal waters at the tail end of the long SE fetch region. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the remainder of the basin. The remnants of Sara are producing isolated showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure dominates the basin with moderate to fresh E to SE return flow, except fresh to strong from the Yucatan Channel and Peninsula to the Texas coast which will persist through today. The next cold front will move into the NW Gulf tonight, reaching from S-central Louisiana to near Tamaulipas, Mexico early Tue, then from Apalachee Bay to Tampico, Mexico early Wed. Reinforcing fresh to strong northerly winds and large seas are forecast across the basin Wed night as the front pushes SE of the basin behind the front starting Wed. The front will push SE of the basin by early Thu with conditions gradually improving through the end of the week as high pressure builds in. Meanwhile, convection associated with the remnants of Sara, currently over the Yucatan Peninsula, will move into the Bay of Campeche today, eventually merging with the cold fornt.

Caribbean Sea

A stationary front extends from south of the Anegada Passage to south of Puerto Rico and then begins to dissipate to near 17N75.5W Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the dissipating stationary front. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are in the Lee of Cuba to across the NW Caribbean, across the approach to the Windward Passage, and south of the Dominican Republic. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except light to gentle in the SW Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the NW Caribbean, 4 to 6 ft elsewhere where the fresh to strong wind plumes are, and 3 ft or less across the remainder of the basin, except 6 to 8 ft near Atlantic Passages.

For the forecast, the remnants of Sara, and associated convection, currently over the western Yucatan Peninsula will continue to shift away from the NW Caribbean today while dissipating. A weakening frontal boundary from the Anegada Passage to south of the Greater Antilles will gradually wash out today. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic through at least tonight. Fresh to strong winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish by mid-week as the next cold front moves toward the area from the NW. The front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Wed night, reaching from central Cuba to near NE Nicaragua early Fri with increasing winds and building seas behind it. Meanwhile, seas of around 8 ft in northerly swell in the Atlantic passages will subside today.

Atlantic Ocean

Surface ridging anchored by a high pressure over the western Atlantic is building across the western subtropical Atlantic waters in the wake of a stationary front that extends from 30N52W southwest to south of the Anegada Passage. A pre-frontal trough is producing scattered moderate convection within 250 nm ahead of the front. Remnant seas of 8 to 13 ft in NW to N swell are decaying, but a reinforcing trough just now moving into the N-central waters is bringing reinforcing swell as well as fresh to strong winds near 30N between 58W and 66W. Fresh to strong S-SW winds are also N of 28.5N in the area of convection. To the east, a 1010 mb low is just N of the area near 31N23W with a related trough from 3016W to 19N29W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 28N to 31N between 17W and 26W. Moderate to fresh winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are across this same area. Broad ridging with gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front from 31N51W to 18N63W. Active convection will persist within 200 nm ahead of the front. Large seas are following the front and will continue through tonight. A reinforcing front or trough will clip the NE waters on Tue, with increasing winds and building seas. The next cold front may move off the SE United States late Wed night, with another round of increasing winds and building seas. This front may reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by early Fri.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv