JACKSONVILLE, Fla. –
An organization of scientists researching climate change predicts that Jacksonville could be one of the cities most impacted by rising sea levels in the years to come.
Climate Central research suggests carbon emissions by mid-century could lock in as much as 10 feet of eventual sea level rise in a "business as usual" scenario of continued carbon pollution. Based on population living in low lying areas, Climate Central said Jacksonville, Sacramento, California, Virginia Beach, Virginia, Miami and New Orleans are the coastal and river cities most threatened in the United States.
If this scenario plays out as predicted by the study, increasing numbers of residents in Florida would be dealing with more frequent nuisance flooding or worse by the middle of the century.
A few times a year, there are temporary rises, like the spring full moon tides or when a strong nor'easter settles in, making for higher than-average high tides for a few weeks. Those rises give people a preview of what a 4 to 6-inch rise in sea level would look like, leaving some people concerned about a more permanent and much larger rise.
Intracoastal resident Meghan Storck saw it first-hand, in her own front yard.
"We did not have a waterfront view in the front of the house when we bought it," Storck said.
During last fall's "supermoon," which prompts higher-than-normal high tides due to a stronger gravitational pull of the moon, a strong nor'easter also set in across Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida. Strong northeasterly winds pushed a higher volume of water along the coastline and into the St. Johns River. The winds push water higher at high tide, and discourage draining during times of low tide, making for higher levels of water.
Those higher than-normal high tides flooded the Storcks' neighborhood, causing damage to their home and property.
"The nails are rotted because all the salt water is all up on it, so I'm gonna have to rebuild all this with new materials," said Jon Storck, Megahn's husband.
Meghan Storck said the water wreaked havoc on their lives and schedules.
"He would have to drive me to move my car in the morning we would plan our whole day around when I had to get to work because of the tide," she said. "It was bad, we had to wear galoshes to even check the mail or to take the dog for a walk. Our whole life changed for three weeks."
The waters made for a challenge for everyone in the Storcks' neighborhood, but the home next door to the couple was completely flooded, and residents there were forced out.
"Our neighbors, these next-door neighbors, actually had to move. It went all the way in their house, they had a small stream running in the back, their rugs were completely floating," Meghan said.
In a city surrounded by water, this type of flooding can become a common occurrence.
"When the tides ride on this high tide level and they get above some elevation, flooding can occur, whether it's nuisance flooding or greater, it's water in the streets that people see," said Dr. William Sweet, an NOAA oceanographer.
Temporary tidal flooding can act as a wake-up call to what a more permanent rise in sea level might look like.
"On top of a little sea level rise, whether it's a coastal storm, whether it's a period of, you know, onshore winds that push more water against the coast, in the short term you are probably looking at more nuisance flooding," Sweet said.
A recent study by Climate Central shows a harsh reality for some of Florida's most populated coastal areas. It states that currently more than 2.4 million people live within 4 feet of the high tide line in Florida. Considering the extreme end of the study's predicted rise in sea level, experts foresee millions of people possibly forced out of their homes by rising water.
Dr. Matthew Brown, a Flagler College professor, has also been monitoring the threat posed by sea level rise.
"Places like Tampa, Miami, any place that built up their infrastructure on the water that's going to have a really big impact because people either have to find a way to raise buildings, raise the infrastructure, make the first floor of those buildings flood, or quasi-flood resistant if you even could, or relocate," Brown said.
In the fall of 2015, northeast Florida saw a 4- to 6-inch rise in the high tide level because of the supermoon and a strong nor'easter, causing nuisance flooding at high tide in multiple locations across the city.
Brown pointed out the difference between this temporary rise, and the potential of a more permanent sea level rise.
"That's 2 or 3 or 4 feet of water that's going to come in, and not go away. That's going to be the sort of new normal," Brown said. "So if I were a city official, if I were a project engineer, that's something I would think should be a top priority, how do we deal with this impending extra water."
That's a question Meghan and Jon Storck are already asking.
"We understand that we live on a canal but would like the canal to flood before our street does. I know that we are lower and I understand that, but this should flood before the street floods. We've asked them about a flapper valve or if they were to install something to stop it," said Meghan Storck.
But her husband explains that they're told water wouldn't be able to drain, because of the water pressure.
Backflow prevention devices are one of the first lines of defense against tidal flooding in storm water drains. The city of Jacksonville told News4JAX those devices are currently installed in four locations: Helm Drive at Julington Creek, Copeland Street at the St. Johns River, Children's Way Pump Station and the Landon Pump Station.
The studies predicting sea level rises in the future show a broad range, from 4- to 10-feet, over an even wider range of time.
"Regardless of whether its 4 feet by mid-century or 10 feet by mid-century, sea level is going to rise and we will see, if you have so much infrastructure that has been built right along the coast, whether it is Jacksonville, Miami is a great example, Tampa, there very well might be people that need to move elsewhere," Brown said.
That scenario is already playing out in the Storcks' neighborhood.
"There's nothing you can do," Jon Storck said. "You can't help anything all you can do is stare at it and pray that it doesn't come any further than it is it's a very helpless situation."