JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The Weather Authority is tracking a tropical wave drifting towards the Bahamas and the National Hurricane Center gives it a 30% chance of development this week.
The trough of low pressure over the Central Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are likely to be unfavorable for significant development during the next couple of days while the trough moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph. Development is not anticipated after that time due to strong upper-level winds.
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A front is expected to push into southeastern Georgia and Northeastern Florida on Tuesday, the disorganized tropical wave will collide with the stalled front and add to the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop each day during the week and into the weekend.
Locally we expect this tropical wave to increase our rain chances starting on Wednesday, subsequently lowering our temperatures. Beginning on Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms could become numerous across our area. Wind gusts will most likely not be an issue- we have seen stronger wind gusts within our afternoon thunderstorms than we will see with the tropical wave.
Rainfall amounts could top out as heavy as 2-4 inches through Saturday in the areas that see the heaviest rain. Most of us will see between 1-2.5" of rain .
Our rain chances will increase Thursday as the wave is nearby.
Chief meteorologist John Gaughan expects the storm will be named Chantal once it steers away from the east coast of the United States.
Our chances for rain will decrease as we head into the weekend and the tropical wave pulls further away from us.