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Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and extends south-southwestward to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to near the coast of Brazil at 02N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-07N east of 35W.

Gulf Of America

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front has entered the Gulf extending from Louisiana near 30N93W to near the US-Texas border near 26N98W. A pre-frontal trough extends ahead of the front from near the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mexican coast near 25N98W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 27N between 85W-95W and scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is also noted from 23N-26N west of 94W. Strong to gale-force gusts and large seas may be present near these thunderstorms. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate with seas 2-5 ft across the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge over the NE Gulf will shift east of the basin by early this afternoon in response to a cold front that is currently moving through the western Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front are further aided by a pre- frontal trough that extends from the western Florida panhandle to 28N90W and to 27N95W, and by another trough that extends from offshore South Texas to NE Mexico. Otherwise, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are south of 26N, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. East winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds north of the Yucatan peninsula and over the Bay of Campeche at night through early next week in association with a diurnal trough, while mainly moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are expected across the Straits of Florida through Wed. The cold front will move through the northern Gulf today and tonight and to east of the basin on Mon. High pressure will then build southward across the Gulf leading to mostly moderate to fresh easterly winds over most of the forecast zones early next week, except gentle to moderate in the NE Gulf, increasing to fresh to strong over the western Gulf by early Tue as the pressure gradient tightens. Another weak front may reach the NW Gulf by early Thu.

Caribbean Sea

High pressure over the W Atlantic combined with a 1009 mb Colombian low is supporting fresh NE winds through the Windward Passage, in the lee of central Cuba, and south of the Dominican Republic this morning. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 2-5 ft across the Caribbean today. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted over the waters from E Cuba and Jamaica to Hispaniola to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, as an upper-level low between the Greater Antilles and Bermuda is enhancing shower activity. Scattered moderate convection is also noted over waters near the Windward Islands and Trinidad and Tobago.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong Tue night and Wed night. Unsettled weather is expected to continue over most of the eastern Caribbean this weekend. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected over the basin into early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A broad 1013 mb low is centered near 23N51W with a trough extending to 18N58W, which is supported by a co-located upper- level trough. Scattered moderate convection extends from 20N-27N between 40W-48W. Winds in the low's N semicircle are moderate to fresh with seas 6-7 ft within 300 NM of the center. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient between ridging across the Bermuda and Azores Highs north to the area to lower pressure over the ITCZ is only producing gentle to moderate trades across the tropical N Atlantic. Seas are 5-8 ft in mixed wind waves and N swell east of 45W and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the gradient between a stationary front that extends from 31N53W to 27N57W and high pressure west of Bermuda supports fresh to locally strong NE winds and locally rough seas west of the front to near 59W. These conditions will gradually shift westward going into early next week as the front weakens to a trough that drifts westward. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may approach then stall near the southeastern U.S. Coast Sun through Mon, then lift back north as warm front around mid-week.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Landsea