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..MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ,

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 04N10E and extends to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 09N between 15W and 40W.

Gulf Of Mexico

Broad ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico, supporting moderate or weaker E winds and moderate seas across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the United States will lead to moderate mainly E winds through mid-week. Winds will then veer southerly ahead of a cold front that should move off the Texas coast Thu.

Caribbean Sea

A cold front extends from Haiti to just south of Jamaica to the coast of Honduras. A surface trough has been analyzed over the Mona Passage. Farther south, the eastern extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough runs across the far SW Caribbean to a 1010 mb low in northern Colombia. The interactions between these features is leading to scattered moderate convection in the central and SW Caribbean, generally south of 17N between 70W and 82W.

The pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the central United States and the aforementioned front support moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft west of a line extending from Haiti to the border of Panama and Colombia. Locally strong winds are observed via recent scatterometer data in areas of convection. The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the SW Caribbean S of 15N. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are present in the SE Caribbean, while moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Moderate seas prevail across the basin.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds are expected across the western Caribbean later today behind a cold front stalling from Haiti to Honduras. The front should dissipate tonight, but locally strong NE winds may continue to pulse in the Windward Passage early this week. High pressure will build over eastern Mexico this week, and low pressure over northern Colombia will strengthen. The increasing pressure gradient between these features will lead to fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across much of the basin Mon night through Tue night.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 31N59W southwestward to the northern coast of Haiti. A trough is noted to the east, from 31N58W to eastern Hispaniola. Scattered showers and isoalted thunderstorms are occurring in the vicinity of the trough. A second cold front extends from 31N66W to 28N80W, and moderate N to NE winds are noted behind both fronts. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a robust subtropical ridge stemming from a 1044 mb high positioned NE of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in western Africa and the deep tropics support fresh to strong E to NE winds across much of the Atlantic E of 35W and N of 18N. Rough seas are found in these waters, peaking near 12-13 ft north of the Canary Islands. Farther south, moderate to locally fresh E trade winds and moderate seas are present between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, south of 18N. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front from 31N59W to Haiti will move E into mid-week, then slowly dissipate over southeastern waters. High pressure building behind the front will lead to increasing winds E of the Bahamas, with strong winds and rough seas likely Mon night into mid-week, before the frontal boundary dissipates.

Posted 2 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams