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TRACKING THE TROPICS
VIDEO FORECAST
TROPICS WATCH
Gulf
Atlantic
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For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
Posted 2 months ago by NHC Forecaster Forecaster Beven
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Special Features
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf tonight. The front will sweep across the basin through Thu night. A trough will likely develop from its remnants over the southwestern Gulf on Fri and linger through Sat night while weakening. Near gale north winds with frequent gusts to gale force will follow the front over the NW Gulf Wed while gale force north winds will develop west of the front off Tampico, Mexico Wed and Wed night and off Veracruz, Mexico Wed night through Thu night. These winds will produce rough to very rough seas, peaking around 14 ft Wed night off Tampico. Winds and seas will diminish during the weekend.
Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: Large, long-period NW swell behind a cold front is sustaining seas of 12 to 18 ft across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic, north of 16N between 13W and 42W. This swell will subside very gradually while shifting eastward toward the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands today. Reinforcing NW swell of 12 to 18 ft will follow by Wed over the waters north of 27N between 35W and 55W, then subside to 12 to 15 ft as it moves east of 35W Fri.
Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details.
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 02N20W to 00N34W. The ITCZ extends from 00N34W to 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05S to 03N between 13W and 42W.
Gulf Of America
Please read the Special Features about the Gale Warning over the western Gulf.
A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida and then weakens to the Bay of Campeche. A broad ridge extends from off the Carolinas towards the coast of Texas and across the southern Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate E to SE winds over the western and southeast Gulf, and gentle NE winds in the northeast Gulf. Seas are slight to moderate basin-wide, highest over the SW waters.
For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate today. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop over the north-central Gulf later today ahead of the next cold front forecast to move into the NW Gulf tonight and sweep across the basin through Thu night. A trough will likely develop from the front remnants over the southwestern Gulf on Fri and linger through Sat night while weakening. Near gale north winds with frequent gusts to gale force will follow the front over the NW Gulf Wed while gale-force north winds will develop west of the front off Tampico, Mexico Wed and Wed night and off Veracruz, Mexico Wed night through Thu night. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds are expected through the period, becoming more confined to the waters north of 22N and west of 90W Fri through Sat night.
Caribbean Sea
A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the south-central Caribbean, with near-gale force winds off Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are occurring in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are present elsewhere.
For the forecast, mostly fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected across the central, eastern and portions of the southwestern part of the basin through Sat night, except for strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate winds along with slight to moderate seas will prevail in the northwestern Caribbean through Thu night. A cold front will sink into the Yucatan Channel and vicinity waters Thu night into Fri, reach the Windward Pasage Fri night into Sat before dissipating Sat night. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front N of the area will lead to the development of fresh to strong NE winds in the Lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage Fri evening through Sat night. Otherwise, rough seas in east swell will continue east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri night, subsiding afterward.
Atlantic Ocean
Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the Significant Swell.
A cold front extends from 31N58W to Andros Island where it stalls to the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of the front N of 27N while rough seas to 9 ft are ongoing between 55W and 71W. The subtropical ridge is displaced southeastward ahead of the front, anchored by a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 26N47W, and extending westward to 61W. Otherwise, in addition to the large NW swell over the central and eastern subtropical waters described in the Special Features section, combined seas of 4 to 8 ft are noted between 55W and 72W south of 22N primarily in NW swell.
For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will become fully stationary and weaken from 29N55W to 27N64W early Wed. Fresh SW winds ahead of the front north of 29N will diminish this morning as the front continues to move eastward. Fresh to strong southeast winds will develop over the central and northeast Florida offshore waters Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the coast Wed afternoon. This front will reach from near 31N77W to Vero Beach, Florida Wed night, from near 31N63W to the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba Thu night, from near 29N55W to the Windward Passage Fri night and begin to weaken as it reaches from near 26N55W to 22N64W to the Windward Passage Sat night. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind this second front north of about 27N through Fri. Strong high pressure will build Sat and Sat night in the wake of the front. The resultant tight gradient will bring fresh to strong NE winds to the Straits of Florida and the Great Bahama Bank primarily south of 25N Fri night into Sat night.
Posted 1 hour, 2 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos
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