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Special Features

Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: A Gale Warning is in effect for a portion of the SW N Atlantic for westerly gale winds in the wake of reinforcing cold front that will quickly sweep across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas starting late tonight through Sat night. Along with these winds, seas are expected to build to 12 to 15 ft by Fri night, covering mainly the waters N of 28N between 65W and 78W. These seas will shift eastward roughly N of 30N, reaching the forecast waters between 55W and 65W on Sun before moving E of 55W early on Mon.

For more details, please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, and continues southwestward to near 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 05N34W to 06N51W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 03N to 09N between 16W and 33W, and from 08N to 14.5N between 38W and 48W.

Gulf Of Mexico

High pressure of 1025 mb located over NW Texas has a ridge that covers the entire Gulf of Mexico and the State of Florida. Moderate to fresh N winds are noted E of 90W with seas 7 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate N winds prevail W of 90W with seas 4 to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and seas of 7 to 8 ft are noted in the Bay of Campeche. Cold air stratocumulus clouds dominate the southern half of the Gulf while clear skies are noted on visible satellite imagery over the waters N of 23N, implying that a cool and drier air mass has invaded the area.

For the forecast, a cold front moving through the southeastern United States will progress into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into Fri morning, promoting fresh NW winds across the eastern half of the basin. Strong N winds will be possible north of 28N and east of 88W through early Fri. Locally rough seas will occur near the strongest winds. Farther south, moderate to fresh N winds will continue through Fri morning in the wake of another cold front moving through the northwestern and central Caribbean Sea. Locally rough seas of 8 to 9 ft are expected through the Yucatan Channel tonight into Fri behind this front. Winds across the basin will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Sat morning as high pressure develops over the southeastern United States. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds look to develop over the western Gulf Sun into early next week ahead of a developing low pressure in the Great Plains.

Caribbean Sea

A cold front stretches from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. An area of showers and thunderstorms is noted near the southern end of the front affecting the Bay Islands and NE Honduras. Fresh to locally strong N winds are behind the front. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the wake of the front. The eastern end of the Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate convection over the SW Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the basin where a light to gentle wind flow is evident, with seas of 1 to 3 ft. A few showers are over the eastern Caribbean in the vicinity of a surface trough that extends from near Guadeloupe Island to to 13N67W.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from central Cuba to central Honduras will progress southeastward through Fri night to 20N77W to 10N82W, before stalling on Sat and gradually dissipating. Fresh to locally strong N winds will occur in the wake of the front, with the strongest winds occurring offshore of Nicaragua Fri night into Sat. Moderate seas will also develop behind the front, with locally rough seas of 8 to 9 ft expected through the Yucatan Channel tonight into Fri. A tightening pressure gradient between developing low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean and high pressure overtaking the southeastern United States will promote fresh NE winds in the Atlantic Passages and in the lee of Cuba on Sat, with moderate to fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas in NW swell developing across much of the basin Sun through early next week.

Atlantic Ocean

A Gale Warning has been issued for parts of the SW N Atlantic. Please, see the Special Features section for more information.

A cold front extends from 31N68W to the NW Bahamas and central Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are on either side of the front N of 27N. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the frontal boundary. A reinforcing cold front is north of the area, however, strong NW wind are noted north of 30N between 77W and 81W. A surface trough runs northeastward from near the northern Leeward Islands to near 25N56W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring near the trough axis. Another trough is producing scattered moderate convection north of 26N between 30W and 40W. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Light to gentle winds are noted under the influence of the ridge. An area of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell covers the waters N of 28N between 41W and 59W. Moderate seas in northerly swell are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a Gale Warning is in effect for a portion of the northwest waters for W gale winds in the wake of a reinforcing cold front that will quickly sweep across the waters N and NE of the Bahamas late tonight through Sat night. The strongest winds will occur north of 30N on Fri and Fri night. Rough to very rough seas will accompany these winds, with seas of 12 to 15 ft expected north of 28.5N between 78W and 65W. Long-period N swell with this front will produce rough seas for areas north of 25N by Sat morning. Rough seas will shift eastward through this weekend, and seas greater than 8 ft will continue into next week for areas east of 65W. Meanwhile, another cold front extending from 31N67W to 25N72W will progress slowly eastward through Fri, with fresh to strong SW winds occurring along and ahead of the front. Winds associated with both fronts will merge on Sat before the system lifts to the north of the area. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas will prevail south of 20N into next week.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Krv