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Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between high pressure located north of the Caribbean Sea and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing winds to gale force offshore of Colombia tonight and Tue night. These winds will then pulse to near gale force at night through Fri. A recent scatterometer pass captured strong to gale-force NE to E winds over much of the south-central Caribbean Sea while buoy 42058 located near 14.5N75W is reporting seas to 12 ft. Seas are expected to build to 13 or 14 ft with the strongest winds.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between high pressure of 1031 mb located near the Azores and lower pressures in NW Africa continues to support NW to N gale force winds in the Agadir marine zone of Meteo-France. Rough seas are expected within these winds. According to Meteo-France, the Gale Warning will end at 25/00 UTC, and will be in effect again on Tue from 25/15 UTC to 25/21 UTC.

For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues SW to 01N25W. The ITCZ extends from 01N25W to coastal of NE Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the equator to 06N between 05W and 22W.

Gulf Of America

High pressure located over the western Atlantic, NE of Bermuda, extends a ridge across Florida into the Gulf of America while a cold front has entered the NW Gulf. Under this weather pattern, gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds prevail, with the exception of moderate to fresh SE winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche due to local effects associated with a thermal trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft over the western Gulf, and 1 to 3 ft over the eastern Gulf. An area of numerous strong thunderstorms is observed over the NE Gulf producing frequent lightning, gusty winds possibly reaching gale force and rough seas. This convective activity is being aided by an upper shortwave trough and nearby surface trough as it shifts eastward.

For the forecast, high pressure across the basin will generally support light to gentle SE to S winds over the western and central Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds over the eastern part of the basin into Wed. A surface trough will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula and move into the Bay of Campeche nightly likely through Fri, supporting pulses of fresh to locally strong winds over adjacent waters. The cold front will skirt the NE Gulf with little impact tonight into Tue. High pressure building into the basin in its wake will lead to moderate to fresh southeast winds and building seas across the NW Gulf by Thu.

Caribbean Sea

A Gale Warning is in effect offshore Colombia. Please, refer to the Special Features section above for more information.

The most recent scatterometer satellite data provide observations of fresh to strong trade winds across most of the east and central Caribbean, particularly from 11N to 18N and E of 82W. These winds are reaching gale force offshore Colombia. Seas are 8 to 12 ft based on altimeter data and buoy observations. Moderate to fresh E winds are seen over the NW Caribbean. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, is supporting isolated to scattered passing showers across the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds offshore of Colombia and Venezuela will pulse to gale force offshore of Colombia tonight and Tue night. These winds will then pulse to near gale force at night through Fri. Fresh to occasionally strong NE winds will pulse in the Windward Passage tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds will extend across the Gulf of Honduras into Wed.

Atlantic Ocean

A Gale Warning is in effect for the marine zone of Agadir in the Meteo-France forecast area. Please, refer to the Special Features section above for more information.

A surface trough extends from 31N45W to 22N56W. A few showers are along the trough axis. Overall, high pressure dominates the entire Atlantic forecast waters between the coast of W Africa and E Florida. Under the influence of this system, fresh to strong NE winds are noted N of 14N and E of 30W, including the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 8 to 12 ft within these winds based on altimeter data. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate to rough seas are evident across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker across the Atlantic with moderate seas, with the exception of moderate to fresh NE to E winds S of 22N between 60W and 75W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the western Atlantic will support gentle winds and slight to moderate seas north of 22N through Wed. This system will shift eastward enabling a weak cold front to move off the northeast Florida coast tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds are likely to pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola into Wed. Another cold front may move into waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Wed.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Gr