BAKU – A new draft of a deal on cash to curb and adapt to climate change released Friday at the United Nations climate summit pledged $250 billion annually by 2035 from wealthy countries to poorer ones. The amount pleases the countries who will be paying, but not those on the receiving end.
It's more than double the previous goal of $100 billion a year set 15 years ago, but less than a quarter of the number requested by developing nations struck hardest by extreme weather. But rich nations say it's realistic and about the limit of what they can do.
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It struck a sour note for developing countries, which see conferences like this one as their biggest hope to pressure rich nations because they aren't part of meetings of the world's biggest economies.
"Our expectations were low, but this is a slap in the face,” said Mohamed Adow, from Power Shift Africa. “No developing country will fall for this. They have angered and offended the developing world.”
Nations are still far apart on reaching a deal
The proposal came from the top: the presidency of the climate talks — called COP29 — in Baku, Azerbaijan.
Lead negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev, Azerbaijan's deputy foreign minister, said the presidency hopes to push countries to go higher than $250 billion, saying “it doesn't correspond to our fair and ambitious goal. But we will continue to engage with the parties.”
Brazil responded with a higher number taken from a report by an expert financial panel appointed by the United Nations secretary-general. Brazil Environment Minister Marina Silva proposed $300 billion a year until 2035 when the number would jump to $390 billion a year.
Brazil is set to host next year's COP30. When asked whether lack of an ambitious agreement at COP29 would put Brazil in a bad position next year, Silva said the consequences were bigger that that.
“More than just hurting COP30, it will hurt the life of all of us and hurt the conditions that give us life on Earth,” she said.
Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare, a veteran negotiator, said the presidency's figure is likely just the first of two or three proposals.
“We’re in for a long night and maybe two nights before we actually reach agreement on this,” Hare said.
Just like last year's initial proposal, which was soundly rejected, this plan is “empty” on what climate analysts call “mitigation” or efforts to reduce emissions from or completely quit coal, oil and natural gas, Hare said.
Anger at ‘meagre’ figure for climate cash
Tina Stege, Marshall Islands' climate envoy, called the drafts “shameful.”
“It is incomprehensible that ... (we) receive only sympathy and no real action from wealthy nations,” she said.
The Least Developed Countries negotiating group said they were “deeply concerned” about the draft deal. “It dilutes the existing commitments of the developed countries and does not reflect the ambition needed for global climate action,” their statement said.
“It is a disgrace that despite full awareness of the devastating climate crises afflicting developing nations and the staggering costs of climate action — amounting to trillions — developed nations have only proposed a meagre $250 billion per year," said Harjeet Singh of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Experts put the need at $1.3 trillion for developing countries to cover damages resulting from extreme weather, help those nations adapt to a warming planet and wean themselves from fossil fuels, with more generated by each country internally.
The amount in any deal reached at COP negotiations — often considered a “core” — will then be mobilized or leveraged for greater climate spending. But much of that means loans for countries drowning in debt.
Iskander Erzini Vernoit, director of Moroccan climate think-tank Imal Initiative for Climate and Development, said “the EU and the U.S. and other developed countries cannot claim to be committed to the Paris Agreement while putting forward such amounts."
Countries reached the Paris Agreement in 2015, pledging to keep warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times. The world is now at 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit), according to the U.N.
Activists were angered, too. Several dozen marched in silence outside the halls where delegates meet, raising and crossing their arms in front of themselves to indicate rejection of the draft text.
Nikki Reisch, director of the climate and energy program at the Center for International Environmental Law, said the offering was unacceptable not just because the money is low, but because “it's really designed to escape and evade the legal obligation that developed countries have” to pay for the climate change they have largely caused.
Rich countries call for realism
Switzerland environment minister Albert Rösti said it was important that the climate finance number is realistic.
“I think a deal with a high number that will never be realistic, that will never be paid … will be much worse than no deal,” he said.
A lack of a bigger number from European nations and the U.S. means that the “deal is clearly moving toward the direction of China playing a more prominent role in helping other Global South countries,” said Li Shou of the Asia Society Policy Institute.
“We think this is at least a text we can work with. Now we have a map on the way forward instead of nowhere where we don’t know where we are going," said German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan.
Analysts said the proposed deal is the start of what could likely be more money.
“This can be a good down payment that will allow for further climate action in developing countries,” said Melanie Robinson, global climate program director at the World Resources Institute. “But there is scope for this to go above $250 billion.”
Rob Moore, associate director at E3G, said that whatever figure is agreed “will need to be the start and not the end" of climate cash promises.
"If developed countries can go further they need to say so fast to make sure we get a deal at COP29,” he said.
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Associated Press journalists Ahmed Hatem, Olivia Zhang and Aleksandar Furtula contributed to this report.
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