FORT MYERS BEACH, Fla. – Florida’s Gulf Coast braced Tuesday for the impact of Hurricane Milton’s winds and expected massive storm surge, which could bring destruction to areas already reeling from Helene’s devastation 12 days ago and still recovering from Ian’s wrath two years ago.
Almost the entirety of Florida’s west coast was under a hurricane warning early Tuesday as the storm and its 155 mph winds crept toward the state at 12 mph, sucking energy from the Gulf of Mexico’s warm water. The strongest Atlantic hurricane on record is 1980′s Allen, which reached wind speeds of 190 mph as it moved through the Caribbean and Gulf before striking Texas and Mexico.
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Milton was downgraded early Tuesday to a Category 4 hurricane, but forecasters said it still posed “ an extremely serious threat to Florida.” Milton had intensified quickly Monday, becoming a Category 5 storm at midday with maximum sustained winds of 180 mph before being downgraded.
Milton’s center could come ashore Wednesday in the Tampa Bay region, which has not endured a direct hit by a major hurricane in more than a century.
But Milton’s compact size means the track, strength and speed of the storm could shift rapidly at any time.
“Do not get wedded to the cone,” Gov. Ron DeSantis said during a Tuesday morning update on the state’s preparations. “Do not get wedded to where the projected landfall is.”
DeSantis reminded everyone that the track could easily “wobble” just before landfall.
“I think a lot of those folks... are used to seeing the wobble going south and so you’ve had a lot of people who have evacuated from some of those barrier islands,” DeSantis said. “Wherever it makes landfall, there’s going to be impacts far beyond what the cone actually shows.”
Scientists expect the system to weaken slightly before landfall, though it could retain hurricane strength as it churns across central Florida toward the Atlantic Ocean.
But meteorologists warn that a hurricane’s strength is based on wind speed, not storm surge, and everyone on the Gulf Coast should be aware of the possibility of major storm surge from Milton, which is expected to make landfall overnight Wednesday into Thursday.
Forecasters warned that Milton could bring a possible 8- to 12-foot storm surge, leading to evacuation orders being issued for beach communities all along the Gulf Coast. In Florida, that means anyone who stays is on their own and first responders are not expected to risk their lives to rescue them at the height of the storm.
Tampa Bay has not been hit directly by a major hurricane since 1921, and authorities fear luck is about to run out for the region and its 3.3 million residents. President Joe Biden approved an emergency declaration for Florida, and U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor said 7,000 federal workers were mobilized to help in one of the largest mobilizations of federal personnel in history.
“This is the real deal here with Milton,” Tampa Mayor Jane Castor told a Monday news conference. “If you want to take on Mother Nature, she wins 100% of the time.”
The Tampa Bay area is still rebounding from Helene and its powerful surge — a wall of water up to 8 feet it created even though its eye was 100 miles offshore. Twelve people died there, with the worst damage along a string of barrier islands from St. Petersburg to Clearwater.
Stragglers were a problem during Helene and 2022′s Ian. Many residents failed to heed ample warnings, saying they evacuated during previous storms only to have major surges not materialize. But there was evidence Monday that people were getting out before Milton arrives.
A steady stream of vehicles headed north toward the Florida Panhandle on Interstate 75, the main highway on the west side of the peninsula, as residents heeded evacuation orders. Traffic clogged the southbound lanes of the highway for miles as other residents headed for the relative safety of Fort Lauderdale and Miami on the other side of the state.
About 150 miles south of Tampa, Fort Myers Beach was nearly a ghost town by Monday afternoon as an evacuation order took effect. Ian devastated the 5,000-resident community two years ago, its 15-foot storm surge destroying or severely damaging 400 homes and businesses. Fourteen people died there as they tried to ride out the storm, and dozens had to be rescued.
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Daley reported from Tampa. Associated Press writers Mike Schneider in Orlando, Kate Payne in Tampa, Freida Frisaro in Fort Lauderdale, Seth Borenstein in Washington, Brendan Farrington in Tallahassee and Mark Stevenson in Mexico City contributed to this report.