JACKSONVILLE, Fla. -- – The rainy season came to a quick end across the region in October, and we have moved into the typical drier pattern.
But the early start to this drier pattern has been very dry.
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Since Oct. 1, the Jacksonville International Airport has had just 1.60″ of rainfall. This is already 2.55″ below average.
In fact, the beginnings of a drought are trying to form in western areas.
The latest Drought Monitor from the National Drought Mitigation Center that arrived Thursday has much of the area north and west of Jacksonville as Abnormally Dry.
Unfortunately, things are worsening in far western areas.
Portions of Columbia and Hamilton counties have now been place in a Moderate Drought.
This is a significant increase as last week both counties were just considered Abnormally Dry.
Things are even worse in the Panhandle. Areas west of Tallahassee have now been placed in a Severe Drought as of this week.
Improving Conditions...
While the dry conditions are becoming concerning, there is hope that rain may return this weekend into next week.
Strong northeasterly winds will begin to transport moisture back into the region, producing scattered showers for Saturday and Sunday.
A powerful storm system is expected to develop over the Bahamas early next week. This will likely produce periods of rain, especially in coastal locations.
And there are indications an active weather pattern may continue for early November.
The 8-14 Day Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for mid-November keeps the region with above-average rainfall.
...But Still Dry Long-Term
However, a dry weather pattern may return as we move toward the end of the month and head into early winter.
It is looking likely that the back end of November will feature below-average rainfall across the area, and this trend may continue into the month of December.
In fact, the Climate Prediction Center has outlooked much of Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia for a likelihood of drought development.
This is a product of another La Nina winter, which often keeps the region fairly warm and dry.
So while rain is likely on the way, a drought heading into winter may in inevitable for most of the area.