JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – July and August were quiet months for hurricane season, especially Aug. 13 through Sept. 8, the quietest it has been since 1968, but now it may seem like the tropics might be waking up.
Typically, the peak season starts at the end of August and runs through mid-September, gradually dying out through October, but we shouldn’t take our eyes off the tropics yet.
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According to the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), La Niña is predicted to continue from September through November and January through March of 2025.
With the continuation of La Niña, hurricane season will stay active. Reduced wind shear and cooling waters will make storms stronger.
According to NOAA, they are still calling for a very active hurricane season with 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes. We currently have had a total of 12 systems, 4 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes so far.
The season is below all original estimates and that we would need 10 more storms in the next 2 months to meet the low end of the revamped CSU estimates for total storms. We would need roughly a new storm every 6 days through the end of the season to make 17-25.
NOAA forecasters estimate a 71% chance that La Niña will emerge during September–November and expect it will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter.
The next updated forecast will be released Oct. 10.