WASHINGTON – Shortly after President Joe Biden announced that he would drop his reelection campaign, Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison had a message: There would be no automatic coronation for his replacement.
“In the coming days, the party will undertake a transparent and orderly process to move forward,” Harrison said in a statement. “This process will be governed by established rules and procedures of the party. Our delegates are prepared to take seriously their responsibility in swiftly delivering a candidate to the American people.“
The comment reflected the reality that while Vice President Kamala Harris is emerging as the prohibitive favorite to become the party's nominee, it's not so simple. And, for now, the party isn't offering many details on what happens next.
Some DNC members had already begun privately discussing contingency plans for the possibility that Biden would step aside prior to his decision to do so on Sunday. A committee setting the party’s rules for the Democratic National Convention, which opens Aug. 19 in Chicago, will gather virtually on Wednesday to discuss the next steps.
On Monday, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi endorsed Harris, and Bill and Hillary Clinton endorsed Harris on Sunday — locking up support within the party that essentially shows the nomination is hers.
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But Harris has to formally secure the nomination from the around 4,700 Democratic convention delegates, including those pledged to Biden, as well as the elected officials, former presidents and other party elders known as superdelegates.
Biden won Democratic primaries in every state, and Harris was on the ticket as his running mate. His tapping her as his successor while bowing out of the race further strengthens her case, as does the endorsements of party heavyweights. Other top Democrats openly backed the vice president even before Biden abandoned his reelection bid, urging him to “pass the torch” to her in the wake of his dismal debate performance against Republican nominee Donald Trump last month.
But Democratic rules state only that delegates “in all good conscience” vote for the candidate they were elected to represent, with no mechanism for defectors. And some in the party have endorsed an open nominating process.
News4JAX spoke with Michael Binder, a political science professor at the University of North Florida, who gave some insight into what the process entails.
“Technically Democratic delegates are not at all bound to vote for candidates that got them there. There’s an out if they can vote for ‘in their conscience’ the best wishes of voters in their state,” Binder said.
While it is possible another Democrat could challenge Harris, that’s becoming more difficult. West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin’s name was floated Sunday but Manchin has since said he won’t run.
“She has consolidated support not only among obviously the most important person president biden… but also all state party leadership, prominent senators, prominent members of the House,” Binder said.
There’s been active debate about how to proceed among lawmakers, major donors and former high-ranking officials of the Biden, Obama and Clinton administrations, said a Democrat with deep ties to the Biden administration.
MORE | Black voters feel excitement, hope and a lot of worry as Harris takes center stage in campaign
The person, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal conversations, argued that Harris would benefit from a competitive mini-primary ahead of the Democratic convention, because it would help solidify her as a strong candidate and diminish criticism that she’s been undemocratically anointed. That's a charge the Trump campaign has already sought to use against her, and could loom large in the battle for undecided voters in battleground states.
Such a scenario might leave Democrats heading into their convention without a clear nominee, though, and perhaps choosing one via a series of potentially messy floor votes. That could mean top Democratic candidates looking to replace Biden resorting to visiting individual state delegations to lobby — a process unseen since 1960, when Lyndon B. Johnson and John F. Kennedy jockeyed for support during their party's convention in Los Angeles.
If that happened, in addition to Harris, many other leading Democrats could vie for the nomination, including the likes of California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and California Rep. Ro Khanna — though many say they're endorsing Harris.
Then there are some legal questions, the Speaker of the House Mike Johnson spoke with ABC News hours before Biden dropped out Sunday.
“Well, these elections are handled at the state level. Every state has its own system and in some of these, it’s simply not possible to switch out a candidate through the democratic, small democratic process,” Johnson said.
But Binder said he doesn’t think there’s merit to that statement.
“There’s not because no candidates have been selected by the party convention yet and there’s plenty of time,” Binder said.
Inside the White House, meanwhile, there’s low expectation that Harris will get a serious challenge, according to a person familiar with deliberations who requested anonymity to discuss the private conversations.
Others who have been mentioned as viable contenders — including Shapiro and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper — have also both endorsed Harris and would seem unlikely to run in light of Biden’s backing her, and the expected fundraising advantage she would hold over anyone who’d enter the field.
The DNC had planned to hold a virtual roll call to choose its nominee ahead of the convention, in order to meet Ohio ballot eligibility rules. That state's original ballot deadline was Aug. 7, and though the Legislature has since approved a law nullifying that, it doesn’t take effect until Sept. 1.
DNC lawyers say that means the party could face legal challenges in Ohio if it fails to name their party’s nominee prior to the state’s original deadline. But the convention rules committee has said it won’t set a date for the virtual roll call — which could take place over several days — before Aug. 1.
Some Democrats fear a host of other GOP legal challenges, including New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who had defended Biden staying in the race by arguing that replacing him might trigger “a presidential election being decided by Clarence Thomas and the Supreme Court” — like what happened during the 2000 presidential election and the disputed recount in Florida.
At Wednesday's conventions rules committee meeting, members could establish virtual roll call rules and a process to nominate Harris or create a more open process for choosing a nominee, according to a person familiar with the process who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
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Associated Press writer Colleen Long contributed to this report.