EASTPOINTE, Mich. – Bill Clinton stood with Michigan Democratic Rep. Debbie Dingell outside a suburban Detroit grocery store two days before the 2016 election when it was clear to both that Hillary Clinton would lose the state. “They didn’t listen to you,” Dingell recalled the former president saying.
Democrats in the state have seemed ascendant since, controlling the governorship, both Senate seats and the state legislature. But some party leaders here are worried that trend is not enough to put distance between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Harris' campaign is banking on the fact that they have spent considerably more money than Trump on ads and have a stronger voter outreach program.
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Michigan is a state that Harris almost certainly must win to capture the White House, and Democrats' concerns are rooted in the fear that polls don’t register all Trump supporters both here and in other battleground states as the campaign enters a critical final phase.
“Anyone who’s from Michigan knows that, if you believe the polling, like, I got a bridge I’m going to sell you somewhere," said Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin, the Democratic Senate nominee.
Dingell and others have said Harris is still relatively new to many voters and that she needs to make her plans clearer to voters. The congresswoman also said Harris needed to counter efforts by Republicans to paint her as out of touch with Michigan workers.
The state of play today? “No one is winning this state right now,” Dingell said.
Patrick Schuh, a veteran Michigan Democratic campaign strategist now deputy national states director for the Democratic voter outreach group America Votes, said voters they have canvassed “are still wanting to hear more about what Harris stands for as a candidate.”
In some ways, it is simply the worrying point in a campaign, and some Michigan Republicans have concerns that mirror Harris supporters, pointing to Harris' spending edge and lack of a get-out-the-vote effort directly from the Trump campaign.
Trump and allied groups have focused in this automotive manufacturing stronghold on the false claim that Harris “wants to end all gas-powered cars," as one ad that began airing this week states.
As vice president, Harris was the tie-breaking vote for the Biden administration's 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, which includes $7,500 tax credits for new electric vehicle purchases.
In an ad airing in Detroit this week, Harris emphasized her biography as a former California attorney general and district attorney “fighting on behalf of others.”
A complication for Harris has been opposition to the Biden administration’s support for Israel in the war in the Middle East within metro Detroit, especially Dearborn, an area that is home to the nation’s largest Arab American community. After months of ongoing discussions with Harris’ team, communication with some Arab American leaders has stalled, according to Arab American News Publisher Osama Siblani, a prominent leader in the community. Phil Gordon, Harris' national security adviser, met virtually with some Arab and Muslim leaders on Wednesday to discuss the escalating war in the Middle East.
The death of a Dearborn resident, who Dingell and other community leaders this week said was killed in south Lebanon, has only ignited anger in the traditionally Democratic area. Kamel Ahmad Jawad’s death was confirmed Wednesday by a spokesperson for the White House’s National Security Council.
Harris may overcome divisions within the Democratic coalition by boosting voter turnout in Wayne County, home to Detroit, where low turnout in 2016 contributed to Clinton’s loss. Black community leaders noted that excitement surged when Harris entered the race in the summer, and that some momentum continues in the majority-Black city of Eastpointe, just north of Detroit.
Canvassers knocking on doors there for Harris last week encountered several who were firmly committed to voting for her, though some undecided voters wanted to learn more.
“I just go off of what I see in the commercials, and Kamala just seems like she’s more for the middle class,” said Taneisha Stinson, a single mother for whom affordable child care is a top issue.
It's understandable for some Democrats to be nervous, given Michigan's recent narrow presidential election margins, said Amy Chapman, a Democratic strategist in Michigan. Trump won in 2016 by fewer than 11,000 votes. In 2020, Biden carried it by a little more than 154,000 votes, but only by 2.8 percentage points.
"If people are worried, they should be," said Chapman, who was Barack Obama’s state campaign director in 2008. "But, not in an ‘oh no’ way, rather in a we-have-to-work-hard way.”
Harris has not ignored pleas to compete aggressively in Michigan, as Hillary Clinton did in 2016 when she became the first Democrat to lose Michigan in 28 years.
Since entering the race on July 23, Harris' campaign and outside groups that support her candidacy have spent more than $79 million in advertising in Michigan, compared to Trump and groups supporting him which have spent more than $62 million, according to the media-tracking firm AdImpact. From Oct. 1 through Election Day, Harris and pro-Harris groups have reserved more than $40 million in Michigan ad spending, compared to $25 million for Trump's campaign and allied groups, according to the firm.
Harris' campaign also has 52 staffed campaign offices in Michigan, including three in Detroit, two in the Grand Rapids area, the state's second-largest metro area and two in vote-rich Oakland County, Detroit's more affluent northwest suburbs. Trump's campaign said they had dozens of offices across the state and in similar places.
"Democrats' financial resources absolutely dwarf anything that the Republicans have,” said former Republican Michigan Gov. John Engler. “But Trump is making stops in locations that have never had presidential visits before, and those are impactful with margins this close.”
Due, in part, to an abbreviated campaign, Harris has visited Michigan three times, with a fourth stop planned for Friday in Flint. In contrast, Trump has made 11 visits to the state, with a 12th planned Thursday in Saginaw. His stops have spread across various regions, while Harris’ efforts have largely focused on the Detroit area.
Public polling, along with insights from campaign operatives in both major parties, indicates that neither candidate holds a clear advantage. On a call with donors this week, Slotkin said her campaign's polling showed Harris “underwater" in the state, a synonym for trailing. Her comments to donors were first reported by Axios.
Slotkin dismissed the term as “just an expression that this is an exceptionally close race," when asked to clarify her remark.
Still, the scenario isn't what Democratic activist Lori Goldman expected after the party's enthusiasm spiked with Harris' July entry into the race.
“What did we see? Money coming in like crazy. Everybody was excited. There was such a bump,” said Goldman, who founded Fems for Dems, a leading Michigan Democratic voter outreach group based in Oakland County. “And now, you know, it's neck and neck.”
“It is PTSD," Goldman said.
Goldman was referring to what Dingell remembers as the outcome of her unheeded warnings in 2016. The Democratic nominee campaigned in Michigan only four times from June through the election. Instead, she focused more on Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, all of which she also lost.
Polls that showed Clinton ahead in Michigan, said Michigan Democratic strategist Adrian Hemond, as others did at the time, did not accurately reflect Trump's support in the state.
“Smart Democrats have a healthy sense of paranoia,” Hemond said. "If polling is as far off as it was in 2016, we’re cooked.”
___ Beaumont reported from Detroit.