A new poll released Monday by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab shows how some key demographics are shifting as early voting begins across dozens of Florida counties.
A sample of 977 likely Florida voters were asked their choice for president, U.S. Senate, and other policy issues. Responses were recorded from those who refused to take the survey but volunteered who they would vote for before hanging up.
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In Florida, Black voters are overwhelmingly leaning toward Vice President Kamala Harris. The poll shows that 84% of likely Black voters in the state say they will vote for Harris.
When it comes to Donald Trump, 60% of likely white voters and 55% of likely Hispanic voters plan to vote for the former president.
When those same people who responded to the poll were asked how they voted in 2020, 78% of the Black voters said they voted for President Joe Biden, but 8% said they didn’t vote at all during the last presidential election cycle.
The Democratic Party has been actively pushing for more Black voters to show up at the polls this go round, and the NAACP is encouraging people to make sure they have their say in the results.
“It’s important for us to engage,” said Derrick Johnson, president and CEO of the NAACP. “Everyone who is legally entitled to cast an effective ballot should be allowed to do so. But we also need to take responsibility and turn out to vote. It’s important for our voices to be heard and our voices are heard through the ballot box.”
Overall, when asked if the election were being held today, 53% of respondents indicated a vote for Trump, 43% for Harris, 2% said they would vote for another candidate and another 2% were undecided.
PORL faculty director and professor of political science Dr. Michael Binder talked about how Trump might have gotten his lead in the poll.
“Prior research tells us that the folks who blurt out their candidate vote choice and then hang up are likely to vote, and most of those ‘blurters’ are Trump supporters. This might help explain why his lead widened to 10 points up from 7 in our last poll back in July,” Binder said.
Amendments
Respondents were also asked how they would vote on three of the six proposed Florida constitutional amendments on the 2024 ballot.
Each amendment must receive at least 60% support in order to pass.
For Amendment 1, which would allow for district school board elections in Florida to include partisan candidates:
- 41% said “yes”
- 30% said “no”
- 30% said they didn’t know
RELATED: YES OR NO: What does your vote mean on Florida’s ballot amendments?
Binder said the large number of undecided voters might be because of “the confusing legal language, especially when read over the phone.” He also pointed out that while more likely voters are in favor of the amendment, it falls far short of the 60% threshold.
Amendment 3, which would legalize adult personal use of marijuana, has increased in support since the last PORL statewide poll in July.
In the latest poll:
- 66% said they would vote yes
- 32% said they would vote no
- 8% said they didn’t know yet
“After years of polling on marijuana in Florida, both medical and recreational, it is clear that the majority is in favor of legalization,” Binder said. “Closing in on election day, despite some heavy campaigning, we’re seeing support for this amendment, and it’s on track to exceed the 60% supermajority required to pass.”
Support for Amendment 4, titled “Amendment to Limit Government Interference with Abortion,” just reached the threshold for a supermajority with 60% saying they would vote “yes,” and 32% saying they would vote “no.” Eight percent said they didn’t know.
RELATED: Florida abortion rights groups push back against some wording set to appear on November ballot
Binder pointed out that support for Amendment 4 has dropped from July’s poll when 69% of likely voters said they would vote in favor of the amendment.
Binder attributed the shift to the increase in campaigning, including political ads.
“Now just barely reaching the 60% it needs to pass, it looks like the fate of abortion in Florida will come down to turnout on Election Day,” Binder said.
When asked about their personal stance on abortion policy, 56% of respondents described themselves as pro-choice, while 34% said they were pro-life, and 7% said they fall somewhere in between. Two percent said they didn’t know or refused to answer.
Click here to read the full poll report.