JACKSONVILLE, FLA – As the Jaguars head towards the NFL draft, one of the biggest holes on the roster is at tight end. It just so happens that the draft features a potential generational talent at that position in former University of Florida star Kyle Pitts.
TE prospect @kylepitts__ runs a 4.46 40-yard dash 💨
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) March 23, 2021
(via level40/IG) pic.twitter.com/1Hq1eRKF9n
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Pitts can do it all and has the makings of a matchup nightmare in the NFL.
Since Gainesville is only a short drive from Jacksonville, many Jaguars fans have been watching Pitts all season. There’s a hope that the team can draft him with the second pick in the first round.
Well, Pitts’ production has pushed him firmly out of reach of that 25th pick, although that hasn’t stopped fans from dreaming of a trade up and selecting the game-changing tight end.
So, just how much would it cost to make a move like that?
The Jaguars do have a ton of draft capital to work with, but getting in range for Pitts will carry a hefty price tag.
The first question is, just how high in the draft will Pitts go?
Well, after running a 4.46 in the 40-yard dash at his pro day, Pitts seems like a lock for the top 10. Well, in NFL draft history the highest a tight end has ever been drafted was fourth overall (Ron Kramer by the Packers in 1957). In Lance Zierlein’s latest Mock Draft on NFL.com, he has Pitts going off the Board to the Eagles with the sixth pick.
If the Jaguars want to land Pitts, they will have to find a way to at least move up into the top 10. That sort of trade does not come cheap.
In 2011, the Falcons moved up 21 spots, from the 27 to sixth, to draft receiver Julio Jones. The Falcons gave the Browns five draft picks to make that happen, including first- and second-round picks in 2011, first- and second-round picks in 2012, and a fourth-rounder in 2012.
An easy way to get an idea of just how much a trade package to move up into the top 10 would cost is to reference this draft value chart, made popular by Jimmy Johnson in the early 1990s during his tenure as head coach of the Cowboys. It simplifies draft pick compensation.
The 10th pick is worth a value of 1300, while the Jaguars 25th pick is worth only 720. According to this value chart, a package of the 25th, 33rd, and 45th pick would be worth 1750. In a vacuum, that could be enough to move up to the fifth pick (1700).
But come draft night, there will be many other factors in play. Other teams will be trying to move up to draft quarterbacks and desperate teams will often overpay. That means to move up that high in the draft would likely cost the Jaguars those three picks and at least an additional first-round pick.
Plus, the Jaguars won’t be the only team that knows how good Pitts is. The team that owns the picks may decide that Pitts is worth more than any boatload of compensation that is thrown at them.
So, while the dream of Trevor Lawrence throwing touchdown passes to Kyle Pitts at the Bank sounds great, just how much is he worth? Is Pitts worth two first-rounds picks and two second-round picks?