Indiana should be able to breathe easy this week. It has very little chance of making it into the Big Ten championship game.
On the other hand, Georgia's spot in the Southeastern Conference title game is so risky that if the Bulldogs lose they might have been better off sitting it out.
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Over the next two weeks, the warm familiarity of conference championship games, which began in 1992 thanks to the SEC, could run into the cold reality that comes with the first 12-team College Football Playoff. League title games give the nation's top contenders a chance to hang a banner and impress the CFP committee, but more than ever, the bragging rights come with the risk of a season-wrecking loss — even with an expanded field.
“I just don’t think it’s a quality conversation,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said last week, sticking with the time-honored cliche of looking no further than the next weekend's opponent.
Those who want to have that talk, though, already know where Georgia stands. The Bulldogs (9-2) are ranked sixth in this week's AP Top 25 and projected somewhere near that in the next set of CFP rankings that come out Tuesday. They already have two losses and will have to beat No. 3 Texas or No. 20 Texas A&M in the SEC title game on Dec. 7 to avoid a third.
How bad would a third loss hurt?
The chairman of the selection committee insists that a team making a conference title game shouldn't count against it. What that really means won't be known until the games are played and the pairings come out on Dec. 8.
"We're going to let the season play out," Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel said. “But I think teams who make that championship game, the committee looks at them and puts them in high esteem."
Indiana's situation is more complex
All of which could be good news for Indiana in the unlikely event the Hoosiers find themselves playing for the Big Ten title.
IU is coming off a flop in its first major test of the season, a 38-15 loss to Ohio State last weekend. After his team's first loss of the season, coach Curt Cignetti took offense to being asked whether the Hoosiers were still a playoff-caliber team.
“Is that a serious question?” he asked. “I’m not even gonna answer that. The answer is so obvious.”
What might hurt Indiana, which dropped five spots to No. 10 in the AP poll, would be another drubbing.
The Hoosiers would be at least a two-touchdown underdog in a title-game matchup against top-ranked Oregon. The odds of that happening, however, are slim. It would take a Michigan upset over No. 2 Ohio State on Saturday, combined with a Maryland upset over No. 4 Penn State and, of course, an Indiana win over Purdue (1-10).
History lessons
Because this is the first year of the 12-team playoff, there's no perfect comparison to make. For instance, this is the first time Power Four conference champions are guaranteed a spot in the playoff.
But 2017 provides a textbook example of how a team losing its conference title game suffered.
That year, Alabama had one loss (to Auburn) and didn't play in the SEC title game, but made the four-team field ahead of Wisconsin, which was 12-1 after a loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. Ohio State didn't make it either — two losses didn't get teams into a four-team field. Neither did undefeated UCF.
Other conferences seem more clear-cut
Saturday's results made things a little more clear for the rest of the conferences:
— In the Big 12, winning the title game will probably be the only way for Arizona State (9-2), BYU (9-2), Iowa State (9-2), Colorado (8-3) or anyone else to earn a spot in the 12-team playoff. None are ranked higher than 14th in the AP poll.
— The Atlantic Coast Conference could get multiple bids. Miami (10-1), SMU (10-1) and Clemson (9-2) all finished in the top 12 of this week's AP poll. They were cheering the loudest when both Alabama and Ole Miss suffered their third losses of the season.
— The Mountain West would be a one-bid conference, but that's only a sure thing if Boise State wins. A loss by the Broncos could open the CFP for Tulane or Army of the American Athletic. Both the MWC and AAC title games take place at 8 p.m. on Dec. 6.
Other things to watch when the rankings come out
— Where the committee places Alabama and Ole Miss on Tuesday will be an indicator of what it thinks of teams with three losses that played very strong schedules.
— It could also set the stakes for Georgia, which faces the prospect of loss No. 3 in the Dec. 7 title game, assuming the Bulldogs beat rival Georgia Tech this week.
— Clemson has been steadily climbing. Its 34-3 loss to Georgia came on Aug. 31. Is it ancient history to the committee, though?
— Indiana's status as a playoff team — in, out, nervous? — will become apparent. The Ohio State game was Indiana's first against a top-flight opponent. Then again, it is the Hoosiers' only loss and their weak Big Ten schedule is not their fault.
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