Labor Day will start a week of wet weather as a cold front dips into our area and then stalls bringing more rain to the area; daily high temperatures will also drop below normal for this time of year staying in the mid-80s.

Mother Nature will Take Care of Some Yards, Others will Need the Sprinklers

We have mentioned on air and in the News4JAX Weather Authority Insider newsletter we were expecting late-season tropical activity/storm this year.

From the NHC: A tropical wave located several hundred miles to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development of this system as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5-10 mph over the tropical Atlantic through early next week.

The latest shift from the NHC has been to the right; this dramatically enhances rainfall impacts but reduces severe wind potential and downtown flooding.

Hurricane Ian continues to move toward the Florida mainland now as a Category 4 hurricane. It is expected to cause Storm Surge, Catastrophic Winds and Flooding in the Florida Peninsula.

Forecasters are watching one tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea.

All eyes are drawn to the Southwestern Caribbean where a unorganized cluster of thunderstorms could potentially develop over the next week.

Hurricane season officially began Wednesday, and federal and state leaders are reminding everyone that now is the time to get ready for a storm.

The Weather Authority is keeping a close eye on a tropical wave that’s slowly moving over the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC gives this disturbance a 50% chance for development over the next 2 and 5 days.

Of the two systems the National Hurricane Center is tracking, the first one that was declared as an area of investigation Thursday morning is the one that will likely become subtropical storm Ana.

Tropical Storm Eta moves across the Florida Keys late tonight and into the eastern Gulf tomorrow. It will be wetter Monday with increasing showers as tropical moisture moves in with the potential for some locally heavy rainfall around the coastal areas. We keep rain around Tuesday and possibly into Veterans Day as rounds of showers pass quickly in the moist flow. Winds will decrease Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure moves to the east and guides Tropical storm Eta through the Keys and into the Gulf where it wanders next week off the west Florida coast. Rain totalsIf this track plays out, the wettest day would be Thursday evening and Friday morning with 1-2 inches of rain.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Tropical Storm Iota formed Friday afternoon in the Caribbean and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane as it approaches Central America. Iota is the 30th named storm of this year’s record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season. The spaghetti models for this system vary widely in what direction the storm will head. What the forecast models do generally agree on is that this system will be on the weaker side. The forecast models should come to a better agreement now that the system has actually formed and as it starts moving forward.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – We are watching two areas in the tropics for the potential for development. One is more likely to develop and will most likely remain out over the open ocean. The other is less likely to develop until next week, but may end up being a concern. Formation chance through 5 days: medium at 60%Two areas may develop next weekNext is the system we may end up watching closely. It’s too soon to tell where this possible system may end up, but at this point it bears watching.

How familiar are you with all the storm terms and hurricane categories? Do you know the difference between a Category 2 storm and a Category 5?

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Long term forecast model (the GFS) has consistently shown a system developing South of Cuba around October 22nd. What has not been consistent is where this system ends up- in the Gulf, tracking over Florida, or curving northward into the Atlantic. It’s too soon to tell where the potential system may end up, but it does look like we will end up with a system named Epsilon, the next name in the Greek Alphabet. Wednesday’s model runs brought the path back towards the coastline of Florida, but not too close, meaning no serious impact. It’s likely that the forecast models won’t have a firm idea of where the potential system will end up until Friday or Saturday.

The center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 93.4 West. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some weakening is possible as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland. Within minutes of the National Hurricane Center upgrading Delta to a Category 3 hurricane Tuesday morning, data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that sustained winds had increased to 130 mph. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta,” the Hurricane Center said.

It is forecast to move into the Gulf as it intensifies into Tropical Storm Gamma. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today to provide a better intensity estimate. Given the uncertainties about how far offshore the center will be over the next several days, the official intensity forecast is conservative. For the next couple of days, the system is expected to move northwestward to north-northwestward on the southwestern edge of a mid-level high pressure area. Long term forecast models hint this system may end up in the Gulf also, if it does develop, it would be named Delta.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The tropics are gloriously quiet right now. It looks like that will continue for the rest of this week. Next week all eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico as the long-term forecast model (GFS) has consistently shown from model run to model run, a system developing in the Gulf. What has not been consistent at all is where that system ends up, with wildly different outcomes nearly each model run. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical depression #22, according to nearly all of the hurricane intensity models, will quickly spin up into Wilfred. By Friday evening, the system will have acquired tropical storm force winds (sustained winds of 40 mph or greater) and the hurricane center will make the announcement, that they are officially out of names for this season. Only the season of 2005 have we done this since lists of names were announce ahead of each season. TD #22 likely to named Wilfred later todayNote on the picture below that the “cone of uncertainty” becomes a bulb, this is an indication that the forecast from the National Hurricane Center has unusually high levels of uncertainty, basically a low confidence forecast. The good news is that this will be a slow moving system.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The tropical storm that formed Saturday off south Florida is strengthening over the warm Gulf waters is expected to approach the Gulf Coast on Monday night with high winds and a life-threatening storm surge. At 8 a.m. Monday, Tropical Storm Sally has 65 mph sustained winds and was centered about 115 miles east southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The National Hurricane Center said dangerous storm surge was possible along the northern Gulf Coast starting on Monday and added hurricane conditions could set in there early Tuesday. A tropical storm watch was extended westward from the Okaloosa/Walton County line in Florida to the Alabama-Florida line. Tropical Storm Rene weakened in recent hours and was reclassified as a tropical depression.

The NHC began issuing advisories on Tropical Depression 19 at 5 p.m. Friday. Forecasters predict 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches across west-central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys, through Sunday. The depression is expected to grow into Tropical Storm Sally once it is over open water in the Gulf of Mexico later in the day. It will be the 18th named storm of this over-the-top hurricane season. Sally could intensify to a strong tropical storm or even Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Mississippi/Louisiana coastline early Wednesday morning.

Tropical Wave #1The first is right over northeast Florida, which is why we’ve had a cloudy and damp weekend. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.”Tropical Wave #2The second disturbance is a tropical wave moving into the eastern Caribbean. NHC Update:“A westward-moving tropical wave is located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.”Tropical Wave #4Back in the eastern Atlantic right of the coast of Africa is another tropical wave. NHC Update:“A new tropical wave is expected to emerge off the coast of Africa in a couple of days.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Update: The hurricane is now moving northward with the initial motion estimated to be 15 mph. Laura is expected to continue moving northward through today which should take the core of the system across Louisiana and Arkansas. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that is still investigating the hurricane has reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 156mph and SFMR winds of 139mph in the northeast eye wall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles. Tropical-storm-force winds have reached the coast of Louisiana and an observing site at Eugene Island recently measured sustained winds of 39 mph and a gust to 64 mph.

On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Laura is expected to move over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday with landfall early Thursday. Strengthening is forecast as the storm moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane today. Tropical storm winds are expected to spread westward within the warning area in Cuba through today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Little Cayman and Cayman Brac today.Tropical storm conditions are also expected within the warning area in the middle and lower Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas this afternoon and tonight.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Floridians need to be very watchful as Tropical Depression 13 -- likely a tropical storm on Friday -- could impact the state of Florida in just five days. A tropical storm watch is out for Puerto Rico, Vieques and Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands and the British Virgin Islands. RELATED STORIES: Tropical Depression 14 forms, to head into the Gulf | Wind shear fades over the Main Development Region of the tropics - A bad omen? | Mid-August starts a critical shift in Jacksonville’s weather patternThis is the 13th tropical depression for this season, a record for the earliest 13th tropical depression of any season (169 years). ONLINE TOOLS: Interactive tracking map | Plan and PrepareA second system being watched by the hurricane center became Tropical Depression 14 and is also expected to become a tropical storm by the end of the day.

2020 - The year of impossibilitiesIncluding the current hurricane season, where we have had 11 named storms, 2 hurricanes. The current seasonal estimate by Colorado State is for 25 named storms, thats 14 more! Worse, is that they are still expecting 4-6 major hurricanes. The season is likely to be one of the most active and possibly severe/damaging we have seen since 2017 with Irma, Maria and Harvey. Those three major hurricanes caused a combined $300 Billion in damage and thousands of deaths (both directly and indirectly).

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. The NHC began issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Kyle at 5 p.m. Friday. The center of Tropical Storm Kyle was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 71.7 West. The previous record was Katrina, which became a tropical storm on August 24, 2005. Tropical Storm KyleKyle is moving quickly east-northeastward along the northern portion of the Gulf Stream, and its future as a tropical cyclone is likely tied to how long it remains over those warm waters. Sometime around or just after 72 hours, the low is forecast to either merge with or be absorbed by a larger extratropical low pressure system over the North Atlantic.

The Weather Authority is keeping a close eye on a tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The cluster of thunderstorms has a 40% chance of development in the next 2 days and 50% chance over the next 5 days. The NHC says the system has a decent chance to develop into an tropical depression by mid week. “Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue to show signs of organization.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. The system weve been watching in the tropics for days has finally reached Tropical Storm strength and was declared Isaias by the NHC on Thursday evening. At 11 p.m., the disturbance was located about 155 miles south on Ponce Puerto Rico with 50 mph winds and a minimum pressure of 1005 MB. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within within 36 hours. Land interaction with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola could also disrupt the organization. Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry on Tuesday said the city is prepared to cope with both tropical conditions and the pandemic.

As of 5 pm, the National Hurricane Center said Hanna was located about 195 miles east of Corpus Christi, Texas. A tropical storm warning was in effect from the mouth of the Rio Grande to San Luis Pass, Texas, and a tropical storm watch was in effect from San Luis Pass to High Island, Texas. The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Tobago and Grenada. The government of St. Lucia has canceled the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. This has potential for becoming a tropical storm after the weekend and could be in the vicinity of Puerto Rico by Friday next week.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. And on the 21st day of July, tropical depression #7 has developed, way , way, way out in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center believes this will become Tropical Storm Gonzalo (gohn- SAH-loh) sometime overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. Yes, the Eastern, especially the southern part of the Eastern Caribbean Sea is often called the graveyard of the tropics. The instance is in the Fall, especially in October, systems in the Eastern Caribbean Sea can rapidly develop. The NHC does not, keeping it as a moderate Tropical Storm through this weekend.

If Fay does develop, again, the National Hurricane Center has it listed as a 80% likelihood of developing into at least a tropical depression, it would become the earliest sixth name tropical storm to develop. And each one of these tropical storms developed from a large gyre of deep tropical moisture. Another gyre of deep tropical moisture developed in June (developed Cristobal and Dolly) and the current gyre of deep tropical moisture has developed Edouard and maybe Fay. Fay would be the sixth named storm of this Hurricane Season and be the earliest sixth name storm ever. Basically, the 2020 hurricane season may start off active, but not destructive, lets hope the trend continues.

By 2 p.m. Wednesday, Bertha had weakened to a tropical depression. On Wednesday morning, the NHC upgraded an area of low pressure that it had been watching near the coast of South Carolina to Tropical Storm Bertha. Tropical Storm Arthur formed over a week ago, brushing the North Carolina coast before it finally headed out into the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Storm Bertha at 2 p.m. On the forecast track, Bertha will move across northern South Carolina later today and into central North Carolina by tonight.

Expect a quick and considerable cool down this evening, with temperatures racing down through the 60s and into the 50s. Friday will be beautiful, expect partly cloudy skies and cool temperatures. The increasing chances for much-needed rain Friday night through Saturday are associated with a low pressure system in the Gulf, currently Potential Tropical Cyclone 16. For our area, we will just see 1-3" of much-needed rain, pushing across our area in waves on Friday night into Saturday. Expect partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures, topping out in the mid 80s.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - Today we saw a fast moving round of downpours push through, followed by building winds and clearing skies. This unsettled weather is all ahead of a cold front that will push through our area tonight and bring us a spurt of fall weather. Thursday will be mostly clear with highs in the upper 70s, with northwest winds around 10 mph. Whether it develops or not, it is expected to move toward the west coast of Florida near the panhandle. The next cold front, bringing chilly temperatures and fall- weather will push through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - As you are aware, we are closely watching 95L, an area of low pressure over the Southern Bahamas. Thursday morning's visible satellite images don't reveal anything too interesting, suggesting that if it does develop, it won't be until Friday. The more preferable forecast model for our area shows a weak tropical storm (still Humberto) cutting across the state from Fort Lauderdale to Tallahassee. Impact on a tropical damage scale of 1-10 would be a 0.5 -- yes, zero point five. These events have a high possibility:Humberto forms on Friday eveningTropical Storm Watches and maybe Warnings will be placed along our coast on Saturday and/or Sunday.

Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s for the afternoon hours. The inland storms will linger through sunset and heavy rain is possible within these slow moving storms. Expect partly cloudy skies for the morning hours, with increasing clouds during the mid day to afternoon hours. Afternoon highs will hit 90 before 60% chances for showers and thunderstorms erupt in the afternoon hours. Thursday we will start out in the mid 70s and warm up into the low 90s during the afternoon hours.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - As we discussed earlier Thursday, it had become more clear that a weak circulation had developed near Nassau in the Bahamas. Surface winds had shifted into a westerly and northwesterly direction over Cuba and this strongly suggests a circulation center had formed. Winds around the center were weak and very light, mainly under 25 mph. In my humble opinion, if we see any significant increase in the thunderstorms on Friday, we will have at least a tropical depression by tomorrow (Friday) evening. That suggests the NHC should be comfortable making this at least a tropical depression -- sooner rather than later.

Invest 96L (the tropical system far out in the Atlantic) is the one to really watch. The European model shows a long term forecast with the tropical wave drifting westward across the Atlantic towards the Leeward Islands and developing into a Tropical Storm by early next week. The latest discussion from the National Hurricane Center says a tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity over the far eastern tropical Atlantic, a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands. No significant development of this system is expected for the next few days while the it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Upper-level winds could become more conducive for development by the weekend while the wave continues westward across the central Atlantic.