Republicans have political winds at their back, but the party's nominees in Pennsylvania for governor and Senate are running dramatically different campaigns and targeting two very different types of voters.

“It’s a mistake to ever have thought Wisconsin was a safely blue state,” said state Democratic Chairman Ben Wikler. To reverse Clinton's losses in the “blue wall” states, Biden benefited from both strong suburban turnout and in the urban centers of Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee. Even in losing Republican-heavy Waukesha County, Wisconsin, Biden's suburban gains were part of his winning Wisconsin formula. Trump also lost Saginaw County, Michigan, a struggling former General Motors supply manufacturing county Obama carried before the president flipped. But we're still a manufacturing economy and nearly stagnant in our growth,” Erie County Democratic Party Chairman Jim Wertz said.

Trump's path to victory in Wisconsin, a state he won narrowly in 2016, has become increasingly complicated, and so has his path to the 270 electoral votes needed for his reelection. As Biden's campaign on Tuesday announced stepped-up Ohio advertising, Trump was reducing his Ohio advertising, according to the ad tracking firm Kantar/CMAG. Wisconsin voters “will see a lot more of the Trump campaign over the next four weeks,” Trainer said. It's sparked some unlikely campaign travel advice for Trump from Wisconsin Republican Rep. John Nygren. It's a scenario also playing out in Pennsylvania, where Trump won by a smaller percentage than in Wisconsin.

Trump narrowly flipped three Great Lakes states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — from blue to red in 2016. “With Pennsylvania, I don’t have to make a play, we’ve got Pennsylvania,” boasted Trump at a rally Tuesday night just outside Pittsburgh. Bush in 1988 had captured the state until Trump did four years ago, winning by just 44,000 votes out of nearly 5.9 million votes cast. Recent Pennsylvania polls disagree over the state of the race: Some show Trump and Biden in a competitive race, while others have Biden slightly ahead of Trump. “Biden is in the perfect position to come back to these voters that Trump lied to four years ago,” Harris said.

Trump's chances for a second term rest heavily on being able to maintain the margins he won by in 2016, particularly in suburban areas. They say that Trump, who won Ohio by 8 percentage points in 2016, maintains a yawning advantage in more rural areas and small towns. Still, Republicans are concerned that if he is losing badly in suburban areas in Ohio, it is a signal that Trump’s hold on other states in the industrial heartland that delivered him the presidency may be in peril. In the blue-collar suburbs of Youngstown, where Trump won by double digits, the same appears to be true. Former Ohio Republican Party Chairman Kevin DeWine, a second-cousin to Gov.