JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – If you plan on following the vote counting on election night, something that may be worth keeping an eye on is the “red mirage,” as it could drastically impact the presidential race in swing states.
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The term was coined this way because of how some swing states count votes, usually favoring Republicans early but then becoming an advantage for Democrats later in the evening and into the next morning.
Historically in many campaigns, election night watchers could go to bed with Republicans performing better in the polls compared to how they are doing by the next morning. This occurs because many states count Election Day ballots first, where Republicans historically do better with voter turnout.
But Democrats historically do better with mail-in votes.
There are three swing states where this phenomenon could take place: Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona.
In Pennsylvania, by law, they can’t start processing mail-in ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day. Even if they came in much earlier.
In Nevada, as long as mail-in ballots are postmarked by Election Day, they can be received up to four days later.
And in Arizona, mail-in ballots dropped off on Election Day aren’t processed until after polls close.
“So the mirage is sometimes overconfidence, [and the] impression Republicans are going to win when in fact there’s a lot of overconfidence in those mail-in votes that are typically more democratic,” said News4JAX Political Analyst Rick Mullaney. “We certainly saw that in 2020.”
Mullaney added some states have improved their processes but the three states mentioned above are particularly interesting to watch.
“Now there has been some reform in 2020. But in Florida, we reformed our system,” Mullaney said. “[Florida] reports early. They’ve changed the law in Michigan, in Nevada, but they did not change the law in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
In various swing states, early vote totals have shown Republicans are voting early in considerably higher numbers than in 2020, but that’s in-person early voting, which is still counted on election night.
Mullaney added if states are trending Republican on election night, but the race stays close, that may be good news for Democrats as Republicans will most likely need a cushion going into mail-in counting.