JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – When Hurricane Matthew rolled out of the Bahamas eyes were glued to the "cone of uncertainty," which had Jacksonville directly in the path.
The track cone, broadcast to viewers by the Weather Authority, projected the storm path with accuracy and warned the public the storm was coming.
Now the cone is getting narrower due to better predictions. Track forecasts are less accurate farther out in time which is why the cone is narrow to start and widens out to 211 miles by day five.
People don't realize storms can sway out of the cone. One-third of the time the center of a hurricane will travel outside of the cone completely.
The cone size is refined each year to account for it averaging the past 5 year track errors which determines the width in nautical miles.
This season the 24 hour time period shrinks down to 45 miles from 49 and the 5 day width decreases from 230 miles to 211.
A new wind map will help alert folks who may not be directly in the path to be aware of dangerous high winds.
It is a first of a kind map to represent the wind field which can be much larger than the cone. It provides the earliest reasonable timing of tropical storm force winds.
This information will be extremely beneficial in letting you know when to cut off outdoor preparations or if you will be free from tropical-storm-force winds.
Another change will be advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center for "potential tropical cyclones." Storms can evolve quickly and now the NHC can react swiftly with advisories for any land threatening systems within 48 hours.