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Can this disturbance form before hurricane season?

3 May tropical systems form in past 4 years

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JACKSONVILLE, Fla – If you live in Florida you know hurricane season starts June 1 and the nail-biting season lasts for the next six months.

But Mother Nature could care less about the calendar. Year after year we have had surprise systems develop in May and sometimes even in April.

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We are currently monitoring a batch of tropical moisture set to head into Jacksonville on Friday. While the chance of it developing into a tropical depression is less than remote, a tropical storm in May is not that uncommon.

The National Hurricane Center only gives this disturbance a 10% chance of developing into a tropical system as it moves toward southern Florida and curves back out to sea and merges with a cold front by the weekend. 

Yet the month has just begun and over the last 11 years six tropical storms formed in May in addition to one subtropical storm in 2007 and a 2009 tropical depression.

All tropical pre-season May tracks in Atlantic Basin since 2007. Many develop east of Florida.

It goes to show there are no hard rules when tropical cyclones develop in the Atlantic but typically the six-month hurricane season is governed by increased activity due to warm water supporting tropical development.

With warming sea temperatures and the rate of recent preseason storms, the official hurricane season may need to be expanded to include May and December. 


About the Author
Mark Collins headshot

After covering the weather from every corner of Florida and doing marine research in the Gulf, Mark Collins settled in Jacksonville to forecast weather for The First Coast.

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