JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Yes, we had very heavy rain this week, but flash drought is still a growing risk across Florida and the Southeast.
Despite over 4 inches of rain Monday in parts of Northeast Florida, it will take much more to erase the nearly 10-inch rainfall deficit in Jacksonville.
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If the skies don't open up more over the next several weeks, November will mark the driest time of the year in Jacksonville when daily thunderstorms cease and tropical systems fade.
Duval County is among others in the Southeast facing rapidly developing "flash droughts" popping up in areas from Virginia south into northern Florida.
Record-breaking late summer and early fall heat and persistent short-term dryness have led to a sharp increase in drought intensity and coverage across the region.
At a time when Jacksonville had the wettest month of the year in September, Florida had the driest September on record, accelerating drought conditions with limited rainfall going back 8 to 10 weeks now with above-average record heat.
A flash drought often begins as a small rain deficit in one county and then expands like fire across the landscape.
Flash droughts are often accompanied by erratic precipitation over sharply defined geographic areas.
Downpours like Monday's can be extraordinarily intense, just as climate change is transforming routine rain events into megastorms resulting in pocketed areas of soggy haves and have-nots.
The pattern change is affecting the time frame in which droughts materialize, which typically took several months.
The term "flash drought" first appeared in a 2001 research paper by Svoboda and was not widely used until after 2012.
As Jacksonville heads into the driest month of the year in November, the potential for a flash drought will grow without persistent rain in the forecast.
While Oct. 7 dumped over 4 inches of rain in select areas near Orange Park and San Jose, Jacksonville's official recording location picked up 1.48 inches at Jacksonville International Airport.
Duval County is currently abnormally dry, but Baker, western Nassau, Union and Columbia counties are in a severe drought.
Rainfall is set back -8.92 inches for the year and is nearly 4 inches less than this time in 2017 in Jacksonville.