JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The 2020 hurricane season officially starts June 1, but the National Hurricane Center is already monitoring an area of rain over south Florida now that could become tropical off the Southeast Atlantic coast by this weekend. The NHC give this a 70% chance of becoming tropical by Saturday and a 80% chance of that by early next week.
“This system is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm by late Friday or Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas,” the National Hurricane Center said.
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If this becomes Tropical Storm Arthur, it would be the sixth year in a row a named storm has formed in advance of the season. (Here’s a break down of tropical storms and hurricanes we’ve seen prior to the start of hurricane season.)
The area of disturbed weather is expected to strengthen northeast of the Bahamas.
The National Hurricane Center’s tropical outlook discussion notes that an area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend. Environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to acquire some subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward through Sunday.
The important part here for us is the northeastward motion, that pushes the system, developed or not, further out to sea and away from us -- just the way we like it. But we will likely see some higher-than-normal tides and rough surf even if this system never gets a name.
Pre-season activity like this does make you question whether we should start hurricane season earlier than June 1, which you can read about here.
Below is what the Euro forecast model is predicting, which would be the formation of a subtropical low-pressure north of the Bahamas that then travels further out to seas, never making a direct impact on our forecast, except to draw moisture away from us, leaving us sunny, dry and breezy.