JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – So far this hurricane season we have seen: Two storms in the month of May, the earliest fifth named storm (Edouard) and yet all of these storms have been very weak, all have been tropical storms. If Fay does develop, again, the National Hurricane Center has it listed as a 80% likelihood of developing into at least a tropical depression, it would become the earliest sixth name tropical storm to develop.
And each one of these tropical storms developed from a large gyre of deep tropical moisture. One gyre developed in May (developing Arthur and Bertha). Another gyre of deep tropical moisture developed in June (developed Cristobal and Dolly) and the current gyre of deep tropical moisture has developed Edouard and maybe Fay.
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Fay would be the sixth named storm of this Hurricane Season and be the earliest sixth name storm ever.
If Fay does develop, the track would hug the Atlantic East coast, bringing heavy rains along the immediate beaches of North Caroline, the Del-Mar-Va, the Coastal New Jersey, New York City into New England.
As with most tropical storms, winds will be relatively weak and non destructive, winds would be highest over the offshore coastal waters of New Jersey and New England as wind gusts may reach 50 mph.
A small storm surge of up to 3′ may take place at landfall along Long Island and into Southern Rhode Island.
Side note: based upon the current forecast models, if Fay does develop from this area of low pressure and track along the coast (remain relatively weak) before dissipating, these first six early season storms would have a combined lowest Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) ever recorded in the tropical Atlantic Hurricane Basin.
Basically, the 2020 hurricane season may start off active, but not destructive, lets hope the trend continues.
The downside? The most updated seasonal forecasters are not that optimistic. Colorado State University and Dr. Phil Klotzbach are still anticipating another 15 name storms, 9 more hurricanes and of those hurricanes, 4 becoming major (potentially very destructive) hurricanes with winds of at least 115 mph.