JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – We are keeping a close eye on two new areas that are likely to develop.
The first is a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing an area of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds. Significant development of this system is unlikely during the next couple of days while it moves quickly westward at about 20 mph across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. After that time, however, the wave is forecast to move more slowly westward, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
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- Formation chance through 48 hours: 20%.
- Formation chance through 5 days: 60%.
Both the Euro and the GFS agree on a track into the Gulf and towards Texas, but the GFS forecasts that the system will develop into a more organized storms while the Euro doesn’t even forecast rotating winds, just an area of wet weather.
The GFS hurricane model predicts a slower-moving storm, more well-developed system on a southerly track, south of Cuba, heading toward the Yucatan peninsula Saturday evening.
The Euro hurricane model predicts a faster-moving but not organized at all area of tropical moisture. The Euro forecasts a much weaker and faster moving system.
The next system to watch is a broad area of low pressure located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: near 70%.
- Formation chance through 5 days: 90%.
Long term forecast models (which a quite unreliable this far in advance) are in significant disagreement as to where this system will end up.
The GFS forecast model predicts No organization whatsoever and a slightly more northerly track across Cuba, the just adding to the moisture in the Gulf behind the previous system.
The Euro takes the system further south, moving South of Cuba and then entering the Gulf, potentially impacting Louisiana to the panhandle.