Hurricane Laura struck nearly the exact spot predicted by the National Hurricane Center three days out in what can be called a near perfect forecast when the average error is about 118 miles.
The feat deserves praise for forecasters who saved millions of dollars in unnecessary evacuations.
Recommended Videos
NHC had such confidence in their landfall prediction that no hurricane warnings were ever issued 100 miles away in Houston despite some models early instance the area could be impacted.
Instead the Category 4 Hurricane struck the southwest coast of Louisiana with 150 mph wind, stronger than Katrina - the highest wind to hit the state since modern record keeping.
Insight into Laura becoming a monster hurricane came two days before landfall when the NHC highlighted it’s potential for rapid intensification which could lead to destructive storm surge over the hot western Gulf water.
While forecasters scored points for track and intensity predictions, fortunately storm surge may not have been as high as anticipated.
In the aftermath, just 3 miles made the difference between what NHC officials warned as “unsurvivable” 20 foot storm surge and the actual preliminary water measurements of at least 9 feet from a tide gauge at the coast.
In truth nine feet is bad enough when talking about surge which is the leading cause of hurricane deaths. and could support the dire language NHC forecasters used to convey the severity of 20 foot potential surge.
Fortunately, preliminary surveys indicate the surge never reached 20 feet because the hurricane eye took a slight jog east of the Calcasieu River mouth where the highest winds and surge couldn’t rush up into Calcasieu Lake.
Had the stronger right side of the hurricane shifted just a couple miles west, the surge would certainly have doubled in height backing up into the shallow Calcasieu Lake. As it was, a surge of 6 feet reached 30 miles inland into Lake Charles.
Parallels can be drawn between this estuary and Jacksonville’s St. Johns River mouth.
Both basins act as a pathway for destructive surges to penetrate inland locations dozens of miles from the coast.
No matter how technology improves weather forecasts in the future, the chaotic nature of weather systems will likely never allow a perfect forecast down to mile accuracy which can make all the difference between a city under water and a near miss.