JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – And just like that the 16th named storm, earliest ever, has become Nana.
Here’s what happens if we run out of names because of how busy this season has been.
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Ongoing northerly shear has caused the satellite appearance of Nana to degrade a little since the last advisory, with the low-level center located near the northern edge of an asymmetric convective burst. Reports from an NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds remain near 60 mph and the central pressure is near 998 mb.
A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to keep steering Nana toward the west, or maybe just south of west, for the remainder of the cyclone’s life.
The new forecast track, which is changed only slightly from the previous forecast, calls for the cyclone to pass north of the Bay Islands in about 12 hours, then make landfall over Belize in 18-24 hours. After that, a generally westward motion is expected until the cyclone dissipates over southeastern Mexico.
The latest indications from the large-scale models are that light northerly shear should persist over Nana until landfall. However, the guidance is in good agreement that strengthening should occur before landfall. The new intensity forecast follows this trend, however, it is a little above the upper end of the intensity guidance.
While not explicitly shown in the forecast, it is expected that Nana will reach hurricane intensity about the time it makes landfall in Belize. After landfall, the cyclone should steadily weaken until it dissipates around 60 hours from now.
Locally heavy rains and gusty winds happened in Jamaica on Tuesday, and interests there, as well as in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and the Yucatan Peninsula, should monitor the progress of this system.
The government of Belize has issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of Belize from Belize City southward to the Belize-Guatemala border. The government of Guatemala has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Guatemala.
Below are the two areas in the Atlantic we are watching next for development
The lower are in yellow has a low chance to develop, only 30% over the next 5 days. The other are storms exiting the coastline of Africa and has a medium (60%) chance to develop over 5 days, once the system passes south of the Cabo Verde Islands.