JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Long term forecast model (the GFS) has consistently shown a system developing South of Cuba around October 22nd. What has not been consistent is where this system ends up- in the Gulf, tracking over Florida, or curving northward into the Atlantic. It’s too soon to tell where the potential system may end up, but it does look like we will end up with a system named Epsilon, the next name in the Greek Alphabet.
Right now the NHC does not expect the Low to develop anytime soon, as listed in their latest discussion:
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The GFS shows the system developing once it moves westward and reaches the ocean south of Cuba
On Monday, the model runs showed the system then moving into the Gulf and possibly tracking northward across Florida. Tuesday’s model runs shows the potential storm curving northward earlier, missing Florida and pushing out into the open Atlantic. Wednesday’s model runs brought the path back towards the coastline of Florida, but not too close, meaning no serious impact.
It’s likely that the forecast models won’t have a firm idea of where the potential system will end up until Friday or Saturday.