On the Drought Vulnerability Index, where does Florida stand?

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – When you think of the word drought, your mind probably wanders to the western United States, but that’s not always the case.

The Drought Vulnerability Index from Climate Central focuses on what states are exposed and sensitive to drought, as well as their ability to adapt. The states most vulnerable to drought might surprise you.

The Climate Prediction Center released their Winter Outlook and it predicts warmer, drier conditions across the southern tier of the U.S., and cooler, wetter conditions up north. This is the result of an ongoing La Nina.

For Florida, that means we’re looking at increasing drought conditions heading into our fire season.

Climate Central explains a few ways we should think about vulnerability to weather and climate events:

• Exposure — The frequency of drought, the state’s population, and the freshwater ecosystems that could be affected
• Sensitivity — A state’s likelihood of being negatively impacted by drought, taking into account industries such as agriculture, water recreation and hydropower
• Adaptive capacity — A state’s preparedness for drought and ability to recover, looking at the state’s drought plan, irrigation infrastructure and economic strength

Based on these three scenarios, Florida is considered a low-risk state on the Drought Vulnerability Index.

Why is that?

A state with a low vulnerability score can still experience drought conditions, but they likely have a stronger economy and robust adaptation measures making them more resilient than other states.

If we look at data going from 2000 to 2020, we can see that Florida has experienced a handful of years with almost 80% of the state in the drought.

Looking back, 2017 was an active fire season for those in northeast Florida and southeast Georgia with the West Mims fire. The West Mims fire was sparked by lightning in the Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge and burned over 100,000 acres. It caused ash to fall in the Jacksonville area and almost forced surrounding towns and neighborhoods to evacuate.

This goes to say that yes, Florida is no stranger to drought or wildfires, but according to the Drought Vulnerability Index, it’s able to adapt and recover at a faster rate than other states.

The states with the highest Drought Vulnerability Index include Oklahoma, Iowa and Montana.

Oklahoma is under high risk due in part to its extensive cattle ranching and other agricultural staples, as well as limited possibilities for irrigation. Indiana University provides an expansive list on how states can improve their vulnerability to drought.

Our climate changing has a lasting impact on these drought conditions.

As temperatures rise, the rate of evaporation increases, drying out soil and adding moisture to the atmosphere. What does this mean? It intensifies the water cycle by making wetter places wetter and dry places drier.

Drought is one of the costliest disasters in the U.S., causing an average of 94 deaths and an inflation-adjusted $6.2 billion in losses per year since 1980.

Overall, this study from Climate Matters helps each state identify what makes them vulnerable to drought.