JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – After decades of forecasting, I have always been leery over the “sure thing” forecast. As we head into the weekend, the forecast models sure seem to be telling everyone who is willing to listen that heavy rains are a “sure thing” for this weekend.
The GFS model has even given a 98% chance of rain for Sunday. Often times, this doesn’t translate well into amounts. The forecast is considered accurate if just 0.01″ of rain falls. But, if I told you there was a 98% chance of rain, you would most likely conclude, “Dang, it is going to rain a ton”. This would be a false interpretation.
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Yet, this is where the forecast models really unload, forecasting anywhere between 2-5″ of rain over a 5 day period from Friday afternoon through Tuesday evening.
I am having some major issues on this actually happening without one huge piece of the forecasting puzzle, there are no clearly identifiable pieces of energy that could develop a large complex area of thunderstorms/rains. Without this piece of information, it is hard to understand the logic of the forecast models and without it, how am I to precisely identify when and how much rain will fall? Answer, you guess.
Let’s go with the thought there will be multiple threats of rain/storms from Friday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Danielle will be watching closely to these changing events as the models focus in the possibilities of flooding rains.
The good news? Just like on Thursday morning, skies will rapidly clear out after 10 a.m. and allow for much brighter skies.
Once again, driving through the sunrise fog, drive much more cautiously than normal as the fog appears to be variably thick. Visibility will be as low as 1/10th of a mile, or about 500′. Driving at 60 mph that is only about 5 seconds of visibility. Not really enough to make quick decisions while driving.
Morning sunrise temperatures will be around 60°, then skies will clear quickly as afternoon highs will launch their way into the low 80s. Boom!
With afternoon highs that warm, there will be a few pop-up afternoon and evening showers, maybe even a rumble of thunder. These will be scattered and most will not receive any rain.
Saturday through Tuesday will see showers/downpours and thunderstorms off and on and some of the rains will be very heavy. They will not last continuously but will take out 3-6 hours each day. Ugh.