JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – This is an update to the challenging weekend forecast. No weather watches, warnings or advisories for the immediate Jacksonville area, but back out west, the I-75 corridor to Tallahassee are under a Flood Watch as their rainfall amounts may exceed 6 inches.
After decades of forecasting, I have always been leery over the “sure thing” forecast. As we head into the weekend, the forecast models sure seem to be telling everyone who is willing to listen that heavy rains are a “sure thing” for this weekend.
Recommended Videos
CHECK ANYTIME: Interactive radar with Future Cast option
The GFS model has even given a 93% chance of rain for Sunday. Often times, this doesn’t translate well into amounts. The forecast is considered accurate if just 0.01″ of rain falls. But, if I told you there was a 93% chance of rain, you would most likely conclude, “Dang, it is going to rain a ton”. This would be a false interpretation.
Yet, this is where the forecast models really unload, forecasting anywhere between 1-3″ of rain over Jacksonville (higher amounts in Georgia) during the next six days.
I am having some major issues on this actually happening without one huge piece of the forecasting puzzle, there are no clearly identifiable pieces of energy that could develop a large complex area of thunderstorms/rains. Without this piece of information, it is hard to understand the logic of the forecast models and without it, how am I to precisely identify when and how much rain will fall? Answer? You guess.
Let’s go with the thought there will be multiple threats of rain/storms from now until through Thursday evening. Danielle (our weekend meteorologist) will be watching closely to these changing events as the models focus in the possibilities of flooding rains.
Saturday through Tuesday will see showers/downpours and thunderstorms off and on and some of the rains will be very heavy. They will not last continuously but will take out 3-6 hours each day. Ugh.