There is a 90% chance we’ll have the season’s first tropical system this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The first non-tropical low pressure system developed Wednesday within a broad area of cloudiness and thunderstorms east-southeast of Bermuda.
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Satellite images Friday indicate that the disturbed area now about 250 miles northeast of Bermuda is well-defined and is gradually acquiring subtropical characteristics. In addition, earlier satellite-derived wind data revealed that the system is producing gale-force winds. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased slightly over the past several hours. If that trend continues, it would result in advisories being initiated on the system by Saturday morning while it moves slowly westward to west-southwestward to the northeast of Bermuda.
The first named storm of 2021 season will be called Ana.
The low is forecast to move northeastward into a more hostile environment by Saturday night or Sunday and the system’s development chances diminish after that time.
INTERACTIVE MAP: Tracking the Tropics | SUPPLY CHECKLIST: Build-A-Kit That Fits
8 pm EDT 21 May: We continue to monitor two areas for possible development.
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) May 21, 2021
1) A low NE of Bermuda is likely to become a subtropical cyclone tonight or Saturday.
2) A Gulf of Mexico low could become a short-lived tropical depression/storm before moving inland over the TX coast. pic.twitter.com/IXdcpMaQbN
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a second well-defined low-pressure area located over the western Gulf of Mexico, about 150 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. Earlier satellite wind data and buoy observations indicated that the system is producing winds of 30-35 mph near and to the east of its center but recent satellite and radar imagery shows that shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited.
Although environmental conditions are not particularly favorable for significant development, only a slight increase in thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a tropical depression or storm before the system moves inland along the Texas coast early Saturday.
Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday. Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across the region.
Formation chance through 48 hours was at 50%,
For the past six years, at least one tropical system has formed before the June 1 “official” start of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Hurricane awareness week was last week. Whatever is brewing in the Atlantic is a reminder that it’s time to check our hurricane supplies and get ready for an above-average season.