NOAA released its 2021 hurricane season outlook Thursday, calling for a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and 10% chance of below-normal season in the Atlantic.
Experts don’t expect the same level of storm activity we saw in 2020.
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Hurricane forecasters predict a range of 13 to 20 named storms. Of those, 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).
NOAA’s seasonal past performance forecasts have been accurate 70% of the time.
Predicting extreme record events is always statically challenging since the odds are stacked against the forecaster. Last year’s NOAA forecast in May called for the highest number of storms since the agency began issuing preseason predictions.
The hyperactive year proved NOAA’s forecast correct as 2020 was the third extremely active season since 2005, totaling a record of five consecutive above-normal seasons.
Fortunately, this season is forecast to only be slightly more active than an average year, but none of these predictions reveals the most important factor: where a storm will hit.
“Now is the time for communities along the coastline as well as inland to get prepared for the dangers that hurricanes can bring,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo. “The experts at NOAA are poised to deliver life-saving early warnings and forecasts to communities, which will also help minimize the economic impacts of storms.”
While some seasons may only see just a handful of storms, it only takes one landfall to make it a bad year.