JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Tropical storm Elsa was not expected to become a hurricane but as it crossed Barbados a sustained wind of 74 mph and a gust to 86 mph was reported. This sustained threshold of 74 mph qualifies the upgrade to hurricane status but can it maintain this vigor?
The factors keeping the tropical storm from staying a hurricane over the long term are its fast speed and the location of mountains along its forecasted path.
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Elsa is clipping along at a rapid pace of 28 mph which has kept the vertical clouds from stacking up over its circulation center. A tilted structure hinders systems from harnessing concentrated thunderstorm energy.
Wind vectors overlaid on visible satellite imagery show how the circulation is displaced southwest from the tallest thunderstorms. This asymmetry should only allow for slow intensification for now.
If the storm’s pace slows down and upper level shear relaxes, the circulation centers at different heights could slowly get more stacked allowing for gradual strengthening as it moves through the Lesser Antilles tomorrow and Saturday.
Several models show hurricane strength due to the warm water and abundant moisture surrounding the storm but NHC forecasters are keeping the intensity below hurricane strength because of its pace and the tall barriers in Elsa’s path. The next advisory at 11 am will be interesting to note if the NHC adjusts their intensity forecast.
First are the tall hills of Martinque and Barbados in the Lesser Antilles, and eventually it could interact with the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba Saturday and Sunday at which point the circulation would break down with land interaction.
Beyond Sunday, forecast models are split on strength and path. The European Model dissipates the system back to a weak tropical wave staying off the east coast of Florida.
While the GFS is completely in the opposite direction, entering the Gulf and up the west coast of Florida.
Due to the lack of confidence in the extended forecast, the National Hurricane Center’s official track is between the two.
Much uncertainty exists beyond the weekend, and regardless, any impacts over north Florida would be after Independence Day and do not appear threatening at this time.