JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – UPDATE:
This system was never classified by the National Hurricane Center despite Hurricane Hunters repeatedly finding a well organized circulation and at one point winds at or above Tropical Storm force (greater than 39 mph). The biggest missing ingredient? Big time storms near the center.
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Yet, we were impacted as 1-3″ of rain fell across the area. In fact, folks at the beach woke up to deep downpours and blasts of thunder just after 2 a.m. Monday morning. Up to 2″ of rain in under an hour making for a messy start Monday morning.
That tropical low is now over Glynn County Georgia and weakening. Still anticipate more downpours over the next few days.
As far as whether, or not, this was ever a tropical depression (or storm) I wouldn’t be surprised that after this season is over that the re-analysis declares it at least a depression, maybe even as a tropical storm.
Of course, there maybe more to this story. I will have my suspicions spelled out in this week’s Weather Newsletter on Wednesday.
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The National Hurricane Center gives this a 60% chance of developing over the next two days and a 60% chance of developing off the Florida coast over the next five days.
Aaahh... too low.
See the satellite picture, there is already a developing circulation center. It will not take much more for this to be classified as a tropical depression. I suspect that will happen late Saturday or early Sunday morning.
Then what?
Forecast models are not particularly interested in developing this area of low pressure. Often times forecast models, especially the global forecast models, don’t develop tropical systems that are in particularly high atmospheric pressure. This looks to be the case with this current system. FWIW, Elsa was another system that never had particularly low pressure.
To me, the Euro forecast model seems to have the best handle of this system and if this is correct, then we will see a weak Tropical Storm Fred form (max winds 40 mph) sometime on Sunday or Monday.
The inhibiting factors for this system will be, close proximity to Florida’s East Coast, dry air above 25,000 feet along with moderately strong upper-level winds. Nothing that strong convection couldn’t overcome. So, as long as we see strong convection, this system should slowly develop.
Whether it develops, or not, what’s the impact on Jacksonville?
The European forecast model shows this system will back westward into Florida. This means we could see rains return to the area on late Sunday into Monday. These rains could be locally heavy and coastal winds may peak around 30-35 mph if everything comes together.
Just stay alert as you enjoy your weekend.