JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The Gulf of Mexico has a habit of slingshotting storms into rapidly intensifying major hurricanes. Just look at what happened a week before Hurricane Ida developed in the Caribbean Sea.
All eyes focused on Hurricane Grace as it developed into a hurricane and hit Tulum, Mexico. Bigger headlines came after landfall when it restrengthened after moving into the southern Gulf.
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Grace then rapidly intensified into a high-end Category 3 hurricane with winds of 125 mph in about 24 hours. It tied Hurricane Karl of 2010 for the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Bay of Campeche.
This process, when winds increase 35 mph or more in 24 hours, is called rapid intensification (RI) and it could send Hurricane Ida over the top once it moves into the Gulf Saturday.
The trigger behind RI has much to do with the environmental conditions around the hurricane. Meteorologists are studying the exact mechanisms that drive intensity higher but underlying warm water plays a key role in supercharging tropical cyclones.
The depth of warm water is critical because the energy it provides to the storm is not exhausted when the hurricane slows down or churns up the seas.
Most major hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico tend to weaken prior to reaching land. Cooler shelf waters can zap the energy but most of the time unfavorable upper-level winds can batter the hurricane structure.
RI will likely be associated with Ida because it will be moving into the northern Gulf where an eddy of warm water is nestled close to the coast of Louisiana. Satellites measure the bulge in the surface water due to warm water expansion, which can be seen by this eddy right in the path of Ida.
It can be extremely scary for those caught off guard and people should always prepare for a storm at least a category stronger than what is forecasted. In 2017 Hurricane Maria strengthened its wind speed by 75 mph in just 18 hours. The rare odds of that happening is only once in 10 years.
A year later Hurricane Michael rapidly intensified to 162 mph just before making landfall in Mexico Beach in the Florida panhandle. Category 5 Michael resisted hostile strong upper-level wind shear which usually weakens hurricanes. Instead, it strengthened to the second-most intense hurricane by pressure to make landfall in Florida.
AOML hurricane researchers later discovered the rapid intensification process was triggered after rainfall completely surrounded Michael’s center, and when the eye of the storm itself was located in nearly the same place at different heights.
The NHC is forecasting Hurricane Ida to reach Category 3 status; based on recent hurricane growth rate, the pattern looks very threatening for another dangerous monster hurricane this weekend.