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First time in nearly two months, no storms to track in the tropics

Is it time to call the hurricane season over?

No cones no storms. After months of continuous tropical cyclone activity, the pause may only be brief.

The National Hurricane Center has been hard at work issuing tropical cyclone advisories every day since August 11, except for a two day break between Hurricane Henri and when Hurricane Ida formed on August 26.

The steady train of storms ramped up right on schedule when the season typically picks up mid to late August and stayed active through the busiest average month in September.

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October formation zones for hurricanes tend to concentrate around Florida. Many move out of the western Caribbean Sea or Gulf and track up and over Florida before the activity diminishes in late October and to a greater degree by November.

October can result in a second peak of intense hurricanes that tend to focus around the Florida Gulf coast.

Major storms like Wilma in 2005 and 2016′s Category 5 Hurricane Matthew are all examples of dangerous October Gulf hurricanes.

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Eleven major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher have made a Florida landfall in October since 1851.

The pattern appears to remain quiet the next few days but models indicate some activity may develop the second week in October along the mid-Atlantic coast and north of the Caribbean.

Just look at the activity last year when four named storms developed in October, three of which became hurricanes, and two of those were major hurricanes. All of these totals were in the top five for October since 1981.

So it’s not over until the calendar reads November 30...the official end of hurricane season. IT will be remembered for the third-most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. But with just over a month and a half left it has time to jump the ranks.


About the Author
Mark Collins headshot

After covering the weather from every corner of Florida and doing marine research in the Gulf, Mark Collins settled in Jacksonville to forecast weather for The First Coast.

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