JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – QUICK NOTE BEFORE WE BEGIN: Tomorrow is a Weather Authority Alert Day as a one-two punch of a warm front and then a cold front will likely bring disruptive morning rains and then possible severe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
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Let’s put a fork in it. The tropics are done in terms of impacting the United States and Jacksonville.
The overall pattern throughout the tropics is of high wind shear and dry air. This double whammy is “putting a stake” into the heart of the hurricane season.
Personally, I can’t tell you how glad that we didn’t see a late-season blow-up as we have seen over the past six years. The October major hurricanes -- Joaquin, Matthew and Michael -- have made it very clear our season of severe hurricanes no longer is an August and September affair, but all the way to November.
But, thankfully, not this year.
I cannot rule out one rogue, final system. As mentioned in prior newsletters, Nov. 4 is the day where (on average) the final tropical storm/hurricane is named. Yet, looking at the current models there is no one system that could make a transition from extra-tropical to sub-tropical and possibly into a tropical storm over the next two weeks.
So, let’s put a “stake into the heart” of this year’s 2021 hurricane season.
Here are the crazy statistics of the busiest two hurricane seasons ever!
| 2020 and 2021 Atlantic tropical stats | Named storms | Hurricanes | Major hurricanes | Deaths | Damage | Greatest impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 30 | 14 | 7 | 417 | $51 Billion | Louisiana |
| 2021 | 20 | 7 | 4 | 159 | $70 Billion | Louisiana |
| Two Year Totals | 50* | 21* | 11* | 576 | $121 Billion | |
| *In bold were all-time records |
Nor’easters, New England vs. Florida
The New England variety is created by low pressure “storms” and in Florida, ours are produced strong high pressure with surge wind. Both are similar as they bring northeast winds, high seas, surf, coastal flooding and heavy rains.
New England was pounded Tuesday night by a very powerful early season “nor’easter” knocking out power to 600,000 customers (about 1 million people impacted) as winds up to 70 mph crushed the coast. Those winds also caused storm surge flooding along coastal areas, including Nantucket Island.
This particular New England Nor’easter had similar low pressure of that of a Category 1 hurricane.
Later in the winter, especially in February, this type of nor’easter could bring extreme snowfall along the I-95 corridor, oftentimes shutting down many Northeastern metro areas.
Let’s hope this is not a sign of things to come this winter as it would portend miserable winter for these people.
It would also suggest that Jacksonville could see more freezes than we have seen over recent winters (although last winter was the coldest we have seen in a while).
What’s immediately ahead?
Once past Halloween, the real nasty “trick” is played on us. Daylight Savings time will end.
Yep, starting next weekend, 2 a.m. Nov. 7, we “fall back” with our clocks and with it say goodbye to our already shortened evenings. The sun will set on Sunday, Nov. 7 at 5:34 p.m.
Sniff, sniff… I already miss the evening sunshine.
FWIW, our earliest sunset will be on Dec. 1 when the sun will set at 5:25 p.m.
Our Halloween weekend, including the Florida-Georgia game looking like a real October “treat.”
Pin of the Week 📷
Yogacat shared this sunrise, adding: “I love the chill in the air and the colors in the sky this morning.”
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