Even seasoned Florida natives may not know how to interpret what is sometimes referred to as the “Cone of Uncertainty.”
The National Hurricane Center’s most popular graphic is based on historical track errors over the past five years. Storms stay in the cone about 60-70% of the time.
There is no guarantee the storm stays in the cone. Forecasts are not perfect and errors typically grow farther out in time which is why the cone becomes wider.
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The cone is helpful for timing the general location of the center of the storm over the next seven days.
Here’s what it does not imply: The hazards, an exact forecast path, forecast confidence or storm size.
For instance, a weak tropical depression could have the same cone appearance as a major hurricane, and it says nothing about the various hazards of each storm.
This has researchers at Florida State University interested in exploring new hurricane track cone concepts to graphically show more information.
Some considerations include color-coded severity levels of inland impacts or the confidence behind the forecast models.
Tropical storms and hurricanes are more difficult to forecast than others. When several forecast models are in agreement, the track lines are clustered together. In less certain storms, the spread is wider.
Your opinion can help tailor a potential new configuration of the graphic along with earning yourself a $15 Amazon gift card.
To be eligible you need to complete FSU’s survey and participate in a 1-hour online focus group interview.