The weather pattern that turbocharges hurricane season in the Atlantic is likely to stay in place for the next few months while the peak of hurricane season arrives.
The latest NOAA predictions say La Niña is favored to continue through summer and stay around in winter.
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The forecast is based on atmospheric pressure and water temperatures in the Pacific which indicate La Niña is not going to fade away anytime soon.
Recent trends show water temperatures have temporarily weakened the strength of La Niña along the Pacific equator. This is likely a brief head fake that won’t lead to an overall decrease in hurricane activity since the slight warm-up in the Pacific is anticipated to reverse itself in time for the heart of the hurricane season.
NOAA has the odds of La Niña remaining through July-September 2022 at 60% and only a 39% chance of it weakening down to neutral conditions during the period. Furthermore, the odds of La Niña increasing a bit decreases slightly during the fall and early winter.
During the fall, winter and spring months, in La Niña years, precipitation is below normal for much of Florida. The jet stream shifts farther north resulting in dryer air, and although freezes are possible, there are fewer cold air outbreaks.