JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – For the past several years storms have developed before the start of what has been very active hurricane seasons but this was the first year since 2014 not to have a pre-season named storm. And so far it has stayed very quiet.
While the correlations of preseason or June/July storms to the rest of the season is almost zero, one can’t help make the case that something is amiss in how much slower this season has been.
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This year marks the first time since 1999 that there have been no named storms between July 3 and Aug. 16, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach.
Hurricanes typically develop on average by August 11 but for the first time in seven years, no hurricane has formed in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, or the Gulf of Mexico by Aug. 15.
By mid-August, the season typically has four named storms under its belt and so far three have occurred. Don’t be surprised if you missed their headlines since none of those tropical storms lasted more than a day except for Alex.
Alex was a brief tropical storm lasting just over 24 hours which soaked Cuba and south Florida before reaching storm status in the Atlantic. Tropical Storm Bonnie was named on the same day it made landfall along the Nicaraguan border with Costa Rica. The last storm became Tropical Storm Colin in the morning after it was over land near Myrtle Beach. It fizzled later that night on July 2, and the tropics have been dormant ever since.
It is quite possible no storms will develop through the remainder of August. If so it ranks the season with historically low activity levels when viewed through the metric of wind energy and longevity, called ACE. By the end of the week, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy is the fourth lowest on record running just 16% to an average season.
Assuming no named storm activity in the Atlantic through the 20th, this year's ACE will slip to just 17% of average for the date. Since 1970, only 3 years had a slower start: 1988, 1984, 1977. We're just getting into the heart of the season though, so don't let your guard down. pic.twitter.com/ZCoovTfcAt
— Brian McNoldy (@BMcNoldy) August 15, 2022
But though the season has sputtered out of the gates, it is common to see an increase in the bulk of the activity after August 15 through about mid-October. This is when more than 90% of all major hurricanes develop through the peak of hurricane season on September 10.
The dry and dusty Sarahan Air Layer that inhibits tropical cyclone development typically fades away in August and often a high storm count results from La Niña patterns which are occurring right now in the Pacific.
These climatological patterns in the weeks ahead play a role in why the National Hurricane Center hasn’t wavered on its prediction of a busy season in the Atlantic, including three to five major hurricanes during its last update on August 4th.
Slow starts or very inactive years can turn into monster years. So far we are seeing a similar start to 1999 which ended being a hyperactive hurricane season.
More than half of the 16 tropical cyclones brushed or struck the United States in, 2004, yet not one named storm developed until August 1st. That was the year when power was out around Jacksonville for two weeks in the aftermath of Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne.