JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – As of Sunday evening’s 11 p.m. update, the track of Tropical Storm Ian has shifted slightly back east. The models still hint at Ian taking a bit more of a west track moving in on the Big Bend region along the Gulf. This continues to put distance between Jacksonville and the impending hurricane.
Here is what changed from the last NHC update:
- The strength has increased to 65 mph winds
- Expected to become a hurricane late Sunday into Monday, then reach Category 4 strength in the Gulf Tuesday
- Models have shifted west farther off the coast of Tampa Bay with more time over hot Gulf water
- Increasing landfall risk farther north of Tampa Bay as a weaker hurricane. Some potential to shift toward Panhandle
Latest advisory
At 11 p.m. Sunday, the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located about 140 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman with significant wind and storm surge impacts expected in western Cuba.
Ian is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph with higher gusts. A westward motion is expected through early Sunday with a turn toward the northwest and north-northwest forecast on Sunday and Monday, followed by a northward motion on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday.
Ian will then move near or over western Cuba late Monday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph with higher gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Ian is forecast to become a hurricane by late Sunday and a major hurricane by late Monday or early Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb.
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect 3 to 6 inches of rain with up to 8 inches. Western Cuba could get 6 to 10 inches, with local maxima up to 16 inches. The Florida Keys into southern and central Florida Peninsula might get 2 to 4 inches, with local maxima up to 6 inches beginning Monday through Wednesday morning.
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Hurricane Warning in effect for:
- Grand Cayman
- Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa
Tropical Storm Warning
- Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:
- Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
What we can expect
Regardless of the exact track, it is becoming likely rain chances will increase Wednesday through the end of next week.
Early next week, Ian is forecast to move near or over western Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the Florida peninsula at or near major hurricane strength, with the potential for significant impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall.
While it is too soon to determine the exact magnitude and location of these impacts, residents in Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and closely monitor forecast updates through the weekend.
This is a system to keep a very close eye on, as the long-term track remains uncertain. The average margin of error in the track in five days is 230 miles.
Stay with The Weather Authority and news4jax.com for updates throughout the next several days.