JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – There’s no doubt it has been a warm winter throughout the region, and it is becoming increasingly likely the warm spell will continue into the spring months.
Dry conditions may also persist throughout the spring, which could lead to increased wildfire danger heading into April and May.
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The warm winter
As we are moving into late February, meteorological winter is coming to a close.
Meteorologists use entire months instead of the astronomical calendar to define seasons. Winter consists of the months of December, January and February.
With the exception of a major cold snap around Christmas, the vast majority of meteorological winter has been warm.
Despite that major Christmas cold spell, the average high temperature at the Jacksonville International Airport during December was 68°. This was just slightly above the average of 67°.
Two record highs were achieved in December — on the 7th and 8th.
January was no doubt a warm month. We set a new all-time record and second all-time record for warmest January on the 30th and 31st.
Four days featured record highs, with a month average high in Jacksonville of 72°, well above the average of 65°.
So far, February has followed the warm script.
Only one day has featured a record high, but the vast majority of the month has featured above-average temperatures. So far, 15 days in February have had above-average highs.
More records are likely to fall later this week, as temps soar into the upper 80s.
The warm and sunny conditions have meant dry conditions have persisted across the area.
As of Monday, Feb. 20, the Jacksonville Airport has received 3.82″ of rainfall, well below the average 8.10″.
What about spring?
There remain strong indications a warm and dry weather pattern will likely continue into the months of March, April and May.
The latest seasonal update from the Climate Prediction Center keeps the entire region in above-average temperatures for the three-month stretch.
The would include conditions of the upcoming Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass in early March.
This does not mean cool stretches are not possible. But a prolonged period of below-average temperatures looks unlikely.
The warmth will likely come at a price — more dry weather.
The seasonal outlook also featured below-average rainfall for much of Florida. Southeast Georgia is outlooked to receive average precipitation.
This is not great news, as rainfall is vital in the spring months to help reduce the wildfire danger across the area.
With the region already entering the spring at a rainfall deficit, additional dry weather could increase the wildfire concern in the late spring and early summer months.
So, if you liked the warm winter across the region, you’ll probably be a fan of the weather for the upcoming spring.