The odds of a hurricane hitting the same area in the United States are increasing according to a Princeton University study that indicates climate change is driving the repeated strikes.
Scientists say the rare probability of back-to-back hurricanes in the past could happen every two or three years on this warming planet.
The news comes as no surprise to residents in Florida and Louisiana.
Within weeks of September 5, 2004, after Frances hits near Stuart as a Cat-2, packing winds of 115 mph, Hurricane Jeanne makes landfall as a Cat-3 with 120 mph winds at Hutchinson Island, 50 miles away from Frances’ landfall.
The National Hurricane Center said these were the closest two landfalling storms first-time two hurricanes were so close. It was also the first time one state has been hit by four hurricanes since 1886.
Then came 2020 when Louisiana was hit by five hurricanes or tropical storms: Cristobal, Marco, Laura, Delta and Zeta. Laura was the biggest of those, packing 150-mph winds.
The following year the state was the target of another double strike when Hurricane Ida struck Louisiana, followed shortly by Tropical Storm Nicholas, which made landfall as a hurricane in Texas but dumped 20 inches of rain along the damage path left from Ida days earlier.
Areas along with East Coast and Gulf Coast will experience sequential storms according to Princeton researcher Ning Lin.
“The proportion of storms that can have an impact on communities is increasing,” Lin said. “The frequency of storms is not as important as the increasing number of storms that can become hazardous.”
According to Princeton University, The researchers ran computer simulations to determine the change in the likelihood of multiple destructive storms hitting the same area within a short period of time such as 15 days over this century.
They looked at two scenarios: a future with moderate carbon emissions and one with higher emissions.
In both cases, the chance of sequential, damaging storms increased dramatically.