Maybe it’s time to stock up on puke bags for your next flight.
As temperatures increase from climate change new high-resolution models indicate clear-air turbulence will increase in the atmosphere.
A turbulent flight in early March dropped a Lufthansa flight almost 4,000 feet while Matthew McConaughey’s wife recounted the scare on Instagram.
Hazardous incidents like this are the leading cause (71%) of all in-flight weather-related injuries and cost the Aviation industry in the United States $200 million annually.
Planes avoid routinely avoid storms and are not the threat but the greater danger comes without any visual cues when pilots and passengers encounter clear-air turbulence.
Skies are smoother in the summer compared to winter since the temperature difference between low and high latitudes is not that different across the northern hemisphere summer.
But as climate change causes the upper atmosphere to warm faster above the tropics than over the poles, the bigger temperature gradient would increase jet stream winds year round where aircraft fly.
These modifications include higher wind shear and abrupt shifts in wind speed and direction, which intensify the formation of turbulent air patches.
The results come from a study using new computer models that the University of Reading and the UK National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS) are employing climate change computers models to demonstrate how hazardous turbulence will impact the aviation industry in the future.
The researchers say the aviation sector should prepare for a more turbulent future.
For every 1.8°F of global near-surface warming, autumn, winter, spring, and summer are projected to have an average of 14%, 9%, 9%, and 14% more moderate clear air turbulence.
Pilots will need to avoid bumpy routes with longer routes that will increase fuel use and boost more carbon dioxide emissions, contributing to further warming of the atmosphere.