JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – It is becoming likely that an area of low pressure will form in the Gulf of Mexico later this week.
And it is not out of the realm of possibility it could become something more.
It is early in the year to talk tropics, but there are some trends that could help the complex organize further.
The developing system
Models for the past several days have been locking onto a system developing in the Gulf in the middle of the week.
This will be possible due to a big dip in the jet stream.
This dip over the Gulf will allow an area of low pressure to develop, along with a frontal boundary that will lift northeastward.
With the low over the Gulf, there will be a very narrow window for the storm system to organize further.
Favoring factors
There are a couple of things going for the complex to become something a bit more.
Water temperatures over much of the Gulf are warmer than average. While these water temps are below the threshold needed for a powerful system, they are warm enough to possibly allow a weak system to form.
Secondly, the upper-level air pattern will be conducive for further organization. An upper-level low will likely sit on top of the surface low, allowing potential further development.
However, almost all of the major computer models lift this storm system into the northern Gulf states late week, reducing its time over water.
This is why it is highly unlikely a subtropical or tropical complex will form in the Gulf.
April systems
It is rare to have tropical systems in the month of April, but not unprecedented.
In 2017, Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the open waters of the Atlantic.
It remained out to sea and fell apart southwest of the Azores.
Tropical Storm Ana formed in 2003. It developed off the east coast of the US and impacted Bermuda in April.
Other systems include Subtropical Storm One in 1992 and two tropical depressions in 1973.
If this system in the Gulf does develop, it will be the first recorded April system in the Gulf in recorded history.
Local impacts
Regardless of development, it is becoming likely Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida will see some impacts.
The storm system will likely throw deep moisture from the Gulf over much of the northern Gulf coast and Florida.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected in the area on Thursday, as the low lifts into Louisiana and Mississippi.
Some minor flooding will also be possible on Thursday, but the heaviest rains will likely be along the northern Gulf coast closer to the system’s center.
After moving over land, the area of low pressure is expected to fall apart over the Southeastern US.
So while a tropical system is not likely in the Gulf, it is an indication that hurricane season isn’t that far away.