JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – It’s been a downright unsettled stretch of weather across the area -- and more is on the way.
This active weather pattern got underway on Sunday and will likely last into the back end of the workweek.
But why is the weather pattern so active? And is it odd for late May?
There are a couple of key players in this stormy weather.
The stalled front
The first key piece to the equation is a cold front that has stalled out over the area.
Fronts this time of year have a difficult time completely clearing the area. The higher sun angle and lack of big change in air masses allow fronts to stall over the region.
And that is exactly what is happening.
The front has stalled, which helps enhance the coverage of rain and storms.
Fronts help “lift” warm moist air, creating showers and storms and increasing the coverage of typical sea breeze activity.
The upper-level disturbances
What is enhancing the rain and storms further, and keeping the activity in the late night and early morning, are upper-level disturbances.
These disturbances push quickly through the atmosphere, creating even more rain and storms than typical.
The disturbances use the front as train tracks to ride on. Multiple disturbances can “ride” on the front over the course of 1-2 days.
The upper-level disturbances can also push through at any time of day, which is why rain and storms have developed at non-typical times.
These disturbances are somewhat unusual to impact the area in late May.
Developing low pressure
Finally, an area of low pressure is expected to develop in the Atlantic later this week.
This storm system, which will likely form southeast of the area, will likely throw tropical moisture back into the region.
These will keep a northeast flow ongoing and likely keep elevated rain and storm chances across the area.
The good news is the same storm system will likely drag dry air south and it moves north toward the Carolinas.
This dry air will likely arrive just in time for Memorial Day weekend, producing sunshine and much lower rain and storm chances.
The weather pattern has no doubt been active, and more storms are likely. It’s all a product of a complicated pattern involving a stalled front, upper-level energy and a developing low-pressure system.