As hurricane seasons approach, the public eagerly awaits the predictions of renowned forecasting organizations.
The latest seasonal hurricane forecast from Colorado State raises the number of hurricanes this year in the Atlantic due to the unusually warm Atlantic water compared to their previous April outlook.
In the world of hurricane forecasting, two notable names stand out: the Colorado State University (CSU) Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Team and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Forecasters.
NOAA’s National Hurricane Center focuses on providing real-time forecasts and warnings as tropical cyclones approach land. In addition, NOAA meteorologists also provide long-range seasonal hurricane outlooks for the entire hurricane season similar to CSU.
Both teams have made significant contributions to our understanding of tropical cyclones and their seasonal predictions.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be more typical of a normal year due to competing factors — warm Pacific water temps that suppress storm development and some that fuel it like warm Atlantic water temps.
NOAA is predicting 12 to 17 named storms, of which 5 to 9 are predicted to become hurricanes, with sustained wind speeds of at least 74 miles per hour. Between 1 and 4 of those hurricanes could be category 3 or greater, with wind speeds of at least 111 mph.
On June 1, CSU increased their earlier April prediction from 13 named storms and six hurricanes to 15 named storms and seven hurricanes. It includes the expectation for three major hurricanes. It also accounts for the January subtropical storm during the past winter.
This is the University’s second update for 2023 with subsequent updates forthcoming throughout the season.
The way each team arrives at their predictions differs somewhat with CSU pioneering a tried and true use of statistical models over the years while NOAA has relied more upon dynamical models.
Both methods have their own strengths and weaknesses.
CSU incorporates a hybrid approach but also focuses primarily on statistical analysis, utilizing historical patterns to correlations to hurricane activity. This approach is less expensive than using dynamical models and it has proven effective over the years, providing reliable seasonal predictions.
On the other hand, NOAA relies heavily on dynamical computer models that simulate atmospheric conditions and interactions between various meteorological variables including data from satellites and buoys, and historical climate data to make accurate predictions.
NOAA’s dynamical models offer a deeper understanding of atmospheric processes but may introduce uncertainties associated with model accuracy.
The CSU Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Team, led by Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach, has been at the forefront of hurricane forecasting since its inception in 1984.
Dr. Bill Gray at Colorado State University became the first to issue outlooks in real time and has been producing uninterrupted forecasts since then and was the only group doing so for the Atlantic through the mid-1990s.
The number of groups issuing seasonal predictions for the Atlantic increased dramatically in the mid-to-late 2000s, totaling at least 26 groups alone for the Atlantic basin to date.
The accuracy of a particular prediction will vary depending on how long before the start of the season it was generated. Generally, the closer to the start of the hurricane season a prediction is produced, the higher its accuracy will be.
CSU provides a forecast on the first day of hurricane season June 1, with subsequent updates throughout the season.
Both CSU and NOAA forecasts serve as crucial tools for public preparedness. Accurate predictions enable individuals, communities, and emergency response agencies to make informed decisions, plan evacuation routes, and allocate resources effectively.
By understanding the potential severity of an upcoming hurricane season, stakeholders can take proactive measures to mitigate risks and enhance resilience.
But these forecasts should never be used to determine whether or not to prepare for a particular season. It only takes one hurricane landfall to make it an active season for those hit. It is important to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.