JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – There is no doubt the weather has been unsettled in the past several days.
Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms have left damage, flooding and canceled events.
And more is likely in the next couple of days.
So what exactly is going on?
The Odd June Pattern
The primary culprit for our active weather is thousands of miles north.
An upper-level low has planted itself over the Northeast and parts of Canada.
This low pushes the jet stream and storm systems well to the south, into the Gulf Coast region.
This type of weather pattern is very, very odd for mid-June. Upper-level lows rarely develop of this size and magnitude in the summer months in this region.
There is also a ridge near Mexico and the western Gulf, which is keeping the storm systems and their tracks right over the area.
The disturbances
What’s been causing the multiple rounds of strong storms has been mid and upper-level disturbances that move quickly through the atmosphere.
These disturbances, called shortwaves, help lift the atmosphere as they move eastward, spawning strong to severe storms.
Multiple shortwaves have moved through the region, often bringing strong storms with them.
Shortwaves can also be intense despite the time of day, which is why severe storms have impacted parts of the Southeast in the middle of the night.
Shortwaves are difficult to predict, which explains why the forecast has been so difficult over the past few days.
When does it end?
We have more unsettled weather ahead for Friday and into the weekend.
Scattered showers and storms are again possible later Friday, with more activity likely on Saturday.
The timing of this activity will be based on the movement of these shortwaves, and how strong the previous round of storms were.
It does look like early next week, the upper air pattern will finally begin to break down.
That doesn’t mean storms will be over.
Deep tropical moisture is now in place across much of the area, and more daily PM sea breeze-driven activity will become likely during the middle and end of next week.
So our very unsettled weather pattern is courtesy of a very odd June weather pattern that will likely be with us over the next several days.