JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – We’ve been watching a tropical wave move across the open Atlantic over the past several days, and it is now organizing.
According to the National Hurricane Center, the system now has a medium chance of development and could be a tropical depression early next week.
This complex could be an early indication of what to expect later on in the Atlantic hurricane season.
The Main Development Region
If the system becomes a tropical depression or tropical storm, it will be the third system to develop in what’s called the Main Development Region, or MDR.
The MDR is where the vast majority of hurricanes and major hurricanes develop.
It would be highly unusual to have three complexes come out of the MDR before Aug. 1.
Two systems, Bret and Cindy, formed earlier in June. This was the first time in recorded history two June storms developed in the MDR.
In typical years, the MDR really comes alive in mid-to-late August into September.
More on the way?
It is possible the Main Development Region may be able to support additional tropical development before the peak of hurricane season.
Water temperatures remain incredibly warm in the region, which could support an earlier start to activity in the MDR.
Warm water is key to developing tropical systems as it is the fuel used to organize and intensify.
The fact that two storms have already developed in this zone indicates that the atmosphere could support additional activity, especially as conditions become more hospitable moving into August.
El Nino has a role
The caveat that the MDR could be ready for additional activity is the role El Nino will play.
An El Nino pattern is now underway, which does impact the Atlantic hurricane season.
El Nino changes upper-air weather patterns, bringing more wind shear into the tropical Atlantic and the MDR.
The wind shear often prevents tropical waves from developing further, sometimes ripping the complex apart.
Traditionally, El Nino years reduce the frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic.
The Track of the Future
All of the major forecast models are indicating this tropical wave will likely turn northward and eventually head out to sea.
And this could be a future trend.
There are indications by some very long-range computer models that tropical activity may be higher than average in parts of the open North Atlantic.
This would likely be achieved by systems that develop in the MDR tracking northward and then northeastward toward the North Atlantic.
This would be great news for our area and for much of the U.S., and the system would swing away out to sea.
A third tropical system could be in the cards in the coming days from the Main Development Region. It is becoming apparent a battle is likely setting up between warm water temps in the area and wind shear from El Nino.
Regardless of who wins, some of this activity may end up turning out to sea heading into the peak of hurricane season.