JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – Welcome to August, a month that traditionally features heat, storms and a big uptick in Atlantic tropical activity.
August is the month that features the biggest increase in tropical development, with a huge ramp-up often occurring in the back end of the month.
The Ramp Up
August is the month when conditions become much more conducive for tropical activity.
Water temperatures continue to increase across the Main Development Region (MDR) giving fuel for developing complexes.
Wind shear often lessens in key areas that are primed for development.
And the Saharan dust and dry air from Africa quickly subside as the month progresses.
All of these changes result in a tropical Atlantic that is normally ready for development.
Activity is traditionally slow in the early days of the month, with activity often increasing in the later days of August.
This ramp-up continues into September, when activity continues to climb toward the peak of hurricane season on Sept. 10.
What’s going on right now
So far in the Atlantic basin in 2023, it has been a touch more active than usual.
The Atlantic has already seen five storms (four named storms and one unnamed storm in January), and one hurricane.
The good news is the tropics look fairly quiet over the next several days.
The area in the open Atlantic that has been watched closely over the last week is unlikely to develop.
Computer models are quiet for the next several days, with no major activity expected over the next seven days.
Long-range forecast
While it is too early to know how busy August will be, some of the ingredients are there for tropical activity to power up later in the month.
Water temps are at record-setting levels across much of the Main Development Region, and wind shear is expected to be somewhat lower during the month of August.
Some longer-range computer guidance is indicating more tropical waves may attempt to organize later in the month, which could lead to tropical depressions and tropical storms.
El Niño is also a factor, which could increase wind shear more than currently forecast.
It should be noted August can also be quiet. Just last year, no named storms developed in all of August.
Prepare Now
If you haven’t already, now is a great time to prepare as we move into the peak of hurricane season.
Many hurricane supplies, like plywood and generators, will be much easier to find now than when a system is threatening the region.
This is also a great time to stock up on other supplies, like water, first aid kits and nonperishable foods.